Heart Of Midlothian
vs
Falkirk
Garuda Lions Prediction: Heart Of Midlothian
2 – 1 Predicted score · 8% model probability
- RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — Heart Of Midlothian is the favourite, not a value bet.
Heart Of Midlothian vs Falkirk overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Heart Of Midlothian vs Falkirk
| Probability | Heart Of Midlothian | Draw | Falkirk |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 35.4% | 26.4% | 38.2% |
| Market | 60.6% | 21.1% | 18.3% |
| Final | 54.3% | 22.4% | 23.3% |
| Edge | -6.3% | +1.3% | +5.0% |
Best available price on the pick: 1.60, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -13.1% per unit staked (our 54.3% × 1.60 − 1).
Heart Of Midlothian vs Falkirk match preview
Heart Of Midlothian enters this match with a 57% probability of winning, while Falkirk has a 21% chance. The expected goals for Heart Of Midlothian is 1.59, compared to Falkirk's 1.40, suggesting a competitive encounter. The most likely scoreline predicted by the model is 2-1 in favor of Heart Of Midlothian, with a 9% likelihood. Additionally, there is a 58% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 61% probability that both teams will score.
In terms of recent form, Heart Of Midlothian has recorded two wins, two draws, and one loss in their last five matches, while Falkirk has achieved four wins and one draw in the same period. Historically, Heart Of Midlothian has dominated their last ten encounters with Falkirk, securing seven victories, one draw, and two losses. The confidence grade for this match is C.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Heart Of Midlothian and Falkirk expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.02
Heart Of Midlothian and Falkirk attack and defence ratings
Heart Of Midlothian
Falkirk
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 13 fixtures
Before and after this match
Heart Of Midlothian vs Falkirk markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Heart Of Midlothian | 54.3% | 1.84 | -6.3% | 1.60 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 58.2% | 1.72 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 61.9% | 1.62 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 77.6% | 1.29 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 64.6% | 1.55 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Heart Of Midlothian | 54.3% |
| Draw | 22.4% | |
| Falkirk | 23.3% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 58.2% |
| Under 2.5 | 41.8% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 61.9% |
| No | 38.1% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 76.7% |
| 12 (either side) | 77.6% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 45.7% | |
| Handicap -1 | Heart Of Midlothian win | 17.3% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 18.1% | |
| Loss | 64.6% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 12.2% |
| 1-2 | 8.6% | |
| 2-1 | 8.2% |
Heart Of Midlothian vs Falkirk stats
Heart Of Midlothian and Falkirk recent form
| Heart Of Midlothian |
LDWLLD |
| Falkirk |
WWWWLD |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Heart Of Midlothian and Falkirk season so far
Heart Of Midlothian record
- They have won 6 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 2.2 goals per match.
- They average 3.2 goals per game at home against 1.5 on the road.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 10 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
- They have converted 4 of 4 penalties (100%).
- 33% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Falkirk record
- They have won 4 of their 11 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 11 matches.
- 38% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Heart Of Midlothian vs Falkirk head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-15 | Falkirk | Heart Of Midlothian | Scotland Premiership | 2-1 |
| 2026-05-13 | Heart Of Midlothian | Falkirk | Scotland Premiership | 3-0 |
| 2026-02-21 | Heart Of Midlothian | Falkirk | Scotland Premiership | 1-0 |
| 2026-01-17 | Heart Of Midlothian | Falkirk | Scotland FA Cup | 1-1 |
| 2025-12-13 | Falkirk | Heart Of Midlothian | Scotland Premiership | 0-2 |
| 2025-09-27 | Heart Of Midlothian | Falkirk | Scotland Premiership | 3-0 |
| 2024-08-17 | Falkirk | Heart Of Midlothian | League Cup | 2-0 |
| 2021-07-03 | Heart Of Midlothian | Falkirk | Friendlies Clubs | 4-0 |
| 2020-02-08 | Falkirk | Heart Of Midlothian | FA Cup | 0-1 |
| 2015-03-21 | Falkirk | Heart Of Midlothian | Championship | 0-3 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Heart Of Midlothian vs Falkirk odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 60.6%, draw 21.1%, away 18.3%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.55 | 4.35 | 5.11 |
| Bet365 | 1.57 | 4.50 | 4.75 |
| BetVictor | 1.53 | 4.20 | 5.00 |
| Betano | 1.50 | 4.75 | 5.80 |
| Betfair | 1.50 | 4.50 | 5.50 |
| Dafabet | 1.58 | 4.60 | 5.40 |
| Marathonbet | 1.53 | 4.35 | 5.20 |
| Pinnacle | 1.60 | 4.44 | 4.96 |
| SBO | 1.48 | 3.90 | 4.64 |
| William Hill | 1.53 | 4.20 | 5.00 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
24 snapshots recorded, from .