Dundee Utd
vs
Motherwell
Garuda Lions Prediction: Dundee Utd
2 – 1 Predicted score · 10% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.98 vs 1.03.
- RiskGrade C: weaker evidence — both clubs are rated on goals scored and conceded, not on the chances they created.
Dundee Utd vs Motherwell overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Dundee Utd vs Motherwell
| Probability | Dundee Utd | Draw | Motherwell |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 58.5% | 23.4% | 18.1% |
| Market | 46.5% | 25.0% | 28.5% |
| Final | 49.5% | 24.6% | 25.9% |
| Edge | +3.0% | -0.4% | -2.6% |
Why Dundee Utd
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.98 vs 1.03.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
- The market prices Dundee Utd below our published probability: +3.0 percentage points of edge.
Best available price on the pick: 2.08, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: +2.9% per unit staked (our 49.5% × 2.08 − 1).
Dundee Utd vs Motherwell match preview
Dundee Utd enters the match against Motherwell with a 51% probability of winning, while the chances for a draw and a Motherwell victory stand at 24% and 25%, respectively. The most likely scoreline predicted by the model is 2-1 in favor of Dundee Utd, with an expected goals tally of 2.17 for Dundee Utd and 1.06 for Motherwell. Additionally, there is a 63% likelihood of over 2.5 goals and a 59% chance that both teams will score.
Recent form shows Dundee Utd with a record of D-W-D-W-W-D, indicating a relatively stable performance. In contrast, Motherwell has struggled significantly, recording six consecutive losses followed by a draw. Historically, Dundee Utd has faced Motherwell ten times, winning twice, while Motherwell has claimed seven victories. The confidence grade for this match is C.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Dundee Utd and Motherwell expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.01
Dundee Utd and Motherwell attack and defence ratings
Dundee Utd
Motherwell
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 13 fixtures
Before and after this match
Dundee Utd vs Motherwell markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Dundee Utd | 49.5% | 2.02 | +3.0% | 2.08 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 57.9% | 1.73 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 56.4% | 1.77 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 75.4% | 1.33 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 41.5% | 2.41 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Dundee Utd | 49.5% |
| Draw | 24.6% | |
| Motherwell | 25.9% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 57.9% |
| Under 2.5 | 42.1% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 56.4% |
| No | 43.6% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 74.1% |
| 12 (either side) | 75.4% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 50.5% | |
| Handicap -1 | Dundee Utd win | 35.8% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22.7% | |
| Loss | 41.5% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 11.1% |
| 2-1 | 10.0% | |
| 2-0 | 9.7% |
Dundee Utd vs Motherwell stats
Dundee Utd and Motherwell recent form
| Dundee Utd |
DWDWWD |
| Motherwell |
WDLLLL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Dundee Utd and Motherwell season so far
Dundee Utd record
- They have won 4 of their 11 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 11 matches.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 11 matches.
- 32% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Motherwell record
- They have won 3 of their 12 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They average 1.7 goals per game on the road against 0.7 at home.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 12 matches.
- They have failed to score in 5 of 12 matches.
- They have converted 2 of 3 penalties (67%).
Dundee Utd vs Motherwell head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-02 | Motherwell | Dundee Utd | Scotland Premiership | 3-0 |
| 2026-02-28 | Motherwell | Dundee Utd | Scotland Premiership | 2-0 |
| 2025-12-13 | Dundee Utd | Motherwell | Scotland Premiership | 0-0 |
| 2025-10-29 | Motherwell | Dundee Utd | Scotland Premiership | 2-0 |
| 2025-02-22 | Dundee Utd | Motherwell | Premiership | 1-0 |
| 2024-12-14 | Motherwell | Dundee Utd | Premiership | 4-3 |
| 2024-10-30 | Dundee Utd | Motherwell | Premiership | 1-2 |
| 2024-09-20 | Motherwell | Dundee Utd | League Cup | 2-1 |
| 2023-05-28 | Motherwell | Dundee Utd | Premiership | 3-2 |
| 2023-04-15 | Motherwell | Dundee Utd | Premiership | 1-2 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Dundee Utd vs Motherwell odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 46.3%, draw 25.1%, away 28.7%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.03 | 3.72 | 3.24 |
| Bet365 | 2.00 | 3.75 | 3.40 |
| BetVictor | 1.95 | 3.70 | 3.20 |
| Betano | 2.05 | 3.75 | 3.40 |
| Betfair | 2.05 | 3.75 | 3.20 |
| Dafabet | 2.08 | 3.80 | 3.35 |
| Marathonbet | 2.01 | 3.72 | 3.24 |
| Pinnacle | 2.03 | 3.78 | 3.44 |
| SBO | 2.02 | 3.24 | 2.89 |
| William Hill | 2.00 | 3.50 | 3.30 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
24 snapshots recorded, from .