Aberdeen
vs
Hibernian
Garuda Lions Prediction: Aberdeen
1 – 0 Predicted score · 13% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.46 vs 0.89.
- RiskGrade C: weaker evidence — both clubs are rated on goals scored and conceded, not on the chances they created.
Aberdeen vs Hibernian overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Aberdeen vs Hibernian
| Probability | Aberdeen | Draw | Hibernian |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 49.0% | 29.1% | 21.9% |
| Market | 38.5% | 27.3% | 34.2% |
| Final | 41.1% | 27.8% | 31.1% |
| Edge | +2.6% | +0.5% | -3.1% |
Why Aberdeen
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.46 vs 0.89.
- Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
- The market prices Aberdeen below our published probability: +2.6 percentage points of edge.
Best available price on the pick: 2.50, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: +2.8% per unit staked (our 41.1% × 2.50 − 1).
Aberdeen vs Hibernian match preview
Aberdeen and Hibernian are set to clash in the Scotland Premiership, with Aberdeen holding a 41% probability of winning, while Hibernian stands at 31%. The most likely scoreline predicted by the model is 1-0 in favor of Aberdeen, with a 13% chance of occurring. The expected goals for Aberdeen is 1.45, compared to Hibernian's 0.90, indicating a potential advantage for the home side.
Both teams have struggled for form recently, with Aberdeen recording two losses followed by a win and a draw, while Hibernian has not won in their last six matches, with four losses and two draws. In their last ten encounters, Aberdeen has secured three wins, while Hibernian has won four times, suggesting a competitive matchup. The model indicates a 42% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 47% likelihood of both teams scoring.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Aberdeen and Hibernian expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.35
Aberdeen and Hibernian attack and defence ratings
Aberdeen
Hibernian
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 13 fixtures
Before and after this match
Aberdeen vs Hibernian markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Aberdeen | 41.1% | 2.43 | +2.6% | 2.50 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 58.3% | 1.72 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 53.4% | 1.87 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 72.2% | 1.38 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 51.0% | 1.96 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Aberdeen | 41.1% |
| Draw | 27.8% | |
| Hibernian | 31.1% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 41.7% |
| Under 2.5 | 58.3% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 46.6% |
| No | 53.4% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 68.9% |
| 12 (either side) | 72.2% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 58.9% | |
| Handicap -1 | Aberdeen win | 25.1% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 23.9% | |
| Loss | 51.0% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 13.7% |
| 1-0 | 12.6% | |
| 0-0 | 10.8% |
Aberdeen vs Hibernian stats
Aberdeen and Hibernian recent form
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Aberdeen and Hibernian season so far
Aberdeen record
- They have won 3 of their 11 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They average 1.4 goals per game on the road against 0.8 at home.
- They have failed to score in 6 of 11 matches.
Hibernian record
- They have won 2 of their 11 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
- They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).
- 33% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Aberdeen vs Hibernian head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-19 | Hibernian | Aberdeen | Scotland Premiership | 1-1 |
| 2026-04-11 | Aberdeen | Hibernian | Scotland Premiership | 2-0 |
| 2025-12-30 | Hibernian | Aberdeen | Scotland Premiership | 2-0 |
| 2025-10-26 | Aberdeen | Hibernian | Scotland Premiership | 1-2 |
| 2025-04-26 | Aberdeen | Hibernian | Premiership | 1-0 |
| 2025-02-01 | Hibernian | Aberdeen | Premiership | 2-0 |
| 2024-12-21 | Aberdeen | Hibernian | Premiership | 1-3 |
| 2024-11-26 | Hibernian | Aberdeen | Premiership | 3-3 |
| 2024-05-12 | Hibernian | Aberdeen | Premiership | 0-4 |
| 2024-02-17 | Aberdeen | Hibernian | Premiership | 2-2 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Aberdeen vs Hibernian odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 38.3%, draw 27.4%, away 34.3%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.41 | 3.40 | 2.73 |
| Bet365 | 2.50 | 3.40 | 2.70 |
| BetVictor | 2.40 | 3.40 | 2.63 |
| Betano | 2.47 | 3.50 | 2.80 |
| Betfair | 2.45 | 3.50 | 2.70 |
| Dafabet | 2.50 | 3.55 | 2.80 |
| Marathonbet | 2.41 | 3.40 | 2.73 |
| Pinnacle | 2.49 | 3.54 | 2.76 |
| SBO | 2.33 | 3.09 | 2.50 |
| William Hill | 2.40 | 3.30 | 2.70 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
24 snapshots recorded, from .