Celtic
vs
Kilmarnock
Garuda Lions Prediction: Celtic
2 β 1 Predicted score Β· 8% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.81 vs 1.39.
- RiskNo edge: the market already prices this β Celtic is the favourite, not a value bet.
Celtic vs Kilmarnock overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Celtic vs Kilmarnock
| Probability | Celtic | Draw | Kilmarnock |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 66.5% | 17.5% | 16.1% |
| Market | 81.0% | 11.7% | 7.3% |
| Final | 77.4% | 13.1% | 9.5% |
| Edge | -3.6% | +1.4% | +2.2% |
Why Celtic
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.81 vs 1.39.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Best available price on the pick: 1.19, recorded β the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -7.9% per unit staked (our 77.4% Γ 1.19 β 1).
Celtic vs Kilmarnock match preview
Celtic enters this match against Kilmarnock with a strong probability of winning at 77%, while Kilmarnock stands at just 9%. The expected goals for Celtic are 2.67, compared to Kilmarnock's 1.33, indicating a potential for a high-scoring game. Our model predicts the most likely scoreline to be 2-1, with a 9% chance of occurring. Additionally, there is a 76% likelihood of over 2.5 goals and a 69% chance that both teams will score.
In terms of recent form, Celtic has recorded a mixed bag of results with one win in their last six matches, while Kilmarnock has only managed one win in their last six outings. The head-to-head record heavily favors Celtic, who have won all five of their most recent encounters against Kilmarnock.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Celtic and Kilmarnock expected goals
Total expected goals: 4.19
Celtic and Kilmarnock attack and defence ratings
Celtic
Kilmarnock
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 13 fixtures
Before and after this match
Celtic vs Kilmarnock markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Celtic | 77.4% | 1.29 | -3.6% | 1.19 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 78.9% | 1.27 | β | β |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 71.1% | 1.41 | β | β |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 90.5% | 1.10 | β | β |
| Handicap -1 | Celtic win | 47.1% | 2.12 | β | β |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Celtic | 77.4% |
| Draw | 13.1% | |
| Kilmarnock | 9.5% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 78.9% |
| Under 2.5 | 21.1% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 71.1% |
| No | 28.9% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 90.5% |
| 12 (either side) | 86.9% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 22.6% | |
| Handicap -1 | Celtic win | 47.1% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 19.4% | |
| Loss | 33.5% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 2-1 | 8.2% |
| 3-1 | 7.7% | |
| 1-1 | 6.5% |
Celtic vs Kilmarnock stats
Celtic and Kilmarnock recent form
| Celtic |
WLDWLW |
| Kilmarnock |
DLLWLD |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Celtic and Kilmarnock season so far
Celtic record
- They have won 9 of their 11 league games this season, scoring 2.5 goals per match.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 11 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 6 matches.
- 39% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Kilmarnock record
- They have won 2 of their 11 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 11 matches.
- 39% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Celtic vs Kilmarnock head-to-head
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-09 | Kilmarnock | Celtic | Scotland Premiership | 1-5 |
| 2026-02-15 | Kilmarnock | Celtic | Scotland Premiership | 2-3 |
| 2025-11-09 | Celtic | Kilmarnock | Scotland Premiership | 4-0 |
| 2025-09-14 | Kilmarnock | Celtic | Scotland Premiership | 1-2 |
| 2025-01-18 | Celtic | Kilmarnock | Scotland FA Cup | 2-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Celtic vs Kilmarnock odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 81.0%, draw 11.7%, away 7.3%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.14 | 8.00 | 13.70 |
| Bet365 | 1.17 | 8.00 | 12.00 |
| BetVictor | 1.13 | 7.50 | 13.00 |
| Betano | 1.19 | 7.60 | 12.50 |
| Betfair | 1.15 | 8.00 | 13.00 |
| Dafabet | 1.18 | 8.60 | 14.00 |
| Marathonbet | 1.14 | 8.00 | 13.75 |
| Pinnacle | 1.16 | 8.71 | 12.61 |
| SBO | 1.14 | 6.38 | 9.26 |
| William Hill | 1.17 | 7.50 | 12.00 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
24 snapshots recorded, from .