ST Johnstone
vs
Dundee
Garuda Lions Prediction: ST Johnstone
2 – 1 Predicted score · 8% model probability
- RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — ST Johnstone is the favourite, not a value bet.
ST Johnstone vs Dundee overview
Garuda Lions analysis: ST Johnstone vs Dundee
| Probability | ST Johnstone | Draw | Dundee |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 33.8% | 27.0% | 39.3% |
| Market | 40.0% | 26.2% | 33.8% |
| Final | 38.4% | 26.4% | 35.2% |
| Edge | -1.6% | +0.2% | +1.4% |
Best available price on the pick: 2.50, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -4.0% per unit staked (our 38.4% × 2.50 − 1).
ST Johnstone vs Dundee match preview
In the upcoming match between St Johnstone and Dundee, the probabilities indicate a competitive encounter, with St Johnstone holding a 47% chance of victory compared to Dundee's 27%. The most likely scoreline predicted by the model is 2-1 in favor of St Johnstone, occurring with an 8% probability. Both teams are expected to contribute to the scoring, with a 58% likelihood of both teams finding the net.
Recent form shows St Johnstone with mixed results, recording two draws and a win in their last five matches, while Dundee has been more consistent, achieving three wins in their last five. The expected goals for St Johnstone stand at 1.37, slightly behind Dundee's 1.43, suggesting a closely contested match ahead. The head-to-head record reveals that in their last ten encounters, St Johnstone has secured one win, while Dundee has four victories and five matches ended in draws.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
ST Johnstone and Dundee expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.91
ST Johnstone and Dundee attack and defence ratings
ST Johnstone
Dundee
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 13 fixtures
Before and after this match
ST Johnstone vs Dundee markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | ST Johnstone | 38.4% | 2.60 | -1.6% | 2.50 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 55.7% | 1.80 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 59.9% | 1.67 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 73.6% | 1.36 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 66.2% | 1.51 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | ST Johnstone | 38.4% |
| Draw | 26.4% | |
| Dundee | 35.2% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 55.7% |
| Under 2.5 | 44.3% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 59.9% |
| No | 40.1% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 64.8% |
| 12 (either side) | 73.6% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 61.6% | |
| Handicap -1 | ST Johnstone win | 15.9% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 17.8% | |
| Loss | 66.2% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 12.7% |
| 1-2 | 8.7% | |
| 2-1 | 8.0% |
ST Johnstone vs Dundee stats
ST Johnstone and Dundee recent form
| ST Johnstone |
DDLDWD |
| Dundee |
WLDWWL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
ST Johnstone and Dundee season so far
ST Johnstone record
- They have won 3 of their 12 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They average 1.7 goals per game at home against 0.8 on the road.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 12 matches.
- They have converted 2 of 3 penalties (67%).
- 33% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Dundee record
- They have won 5 of their 11 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- They average 1.8 goals per game at home against 1.2 on the road.
- 56% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
ST Johnstone vs Dundee head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-02 | Dundee | ST Johnstone | Scotland Premiership | 1-1 |
| 2025-05-18 | ST Johnstone | Dundee | Premiership | 0-2 |
| 2025-03-01 | Dundee | ST Johnstone | Premiership | 1-1 |
| 2025-01-05 | ST Johnstone | Dundee | Premiership | 1-3 |
| 2024-10-26 | Dundee | ST Johnstone | Premiership | 1-2 |
| 2024-03-30 | ST Johnstone | Dundee | Premiership | 1-2 |
| 2024-02-11 | Dundee | ST Johnstone | Premiership | 2-1 |
| 2023-09-02 | ST Johnstone | Dundee | Premiership | 2-2 |
| 2022-04-23 | Dundee | ST Johnstone | Premiership | 1-1 |
| 2022-01-26 | ST Johnstone | Dundee | Premiership | 0-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
ST Johnstone vs Dundee odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 39.5%, draw 26.3%, away 34.2%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.32 | 3.54 | 2.81 |
| Bet365 | 2.50 | 3.40 | 2.70 |
| BetVictor | 2.30 | 3.40 | 2.75 |
| Betano | 2.40 | 3.65 | 2.80 |
| Betfair | 2.45 | 3.60 | 2.63 |
| Dafabet | 2.44 | 3.55 | 2.90 |
| Marathonbet | 2.30 | 3.54 | 2.80 |
| Pinnacle | 2.41 | 3.79 | 2.71 |
| SBO | 2.28 | 3.14 | 2.54 |
| William Hill | 2.30 | 3.50 | 2.70 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
24 snapshots recorded, from .