Motherwell
vs
ST Mirren
Garuda Lions Prediction: Motherwell
2 – 1 Predicted score · 10% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.81 vs 1.26.
- RiskNo bookmaker prices recorded yet, so this pick has not been checked against the market.
Motherwell vs ST Mirren overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Motherwell vs ST Mirren
| Probability | Motherwell | Draw | ST Mirren |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 49.3% | 25.2% | 25.5% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Final | 49.3% | 25.2% | 25.5% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Why Motherwell
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.81 vs 1.26.
Motherwell vs ST Mirren match preview
Motherwell faces ST Mirren in the Scotland Premiership with a probability model indicating a 49% chance of a Motherwell victory, while ST Mirren stands at 26%. The most likely scoreline is projected to be 2-1, occurring at a 10% likelihood. The model suggests a high probability of over 2.5 goals at 59% and both teams scoring at 61%.
In terms of expected goals, Motherwell is forecasted to achieve 1.81, compared to ST Mirren's 1.26. Recent form shows Motherwell struggling with five consecutive losses before a win, while ST Mirren has also faced difficulties, recording one win in their last seven matches. Historically, Motherwell has performed well against ST Mirren, with two wins and two draws in their last four encounters.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Motherwell and ST Mirren expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.06
Motherwell and ST Mirren attack and defence ratings
Motherwell
ST Mirren
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 12 fixtures
Before and after this match
Motherwell vs ST Mirren markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Motherwell | 49.3% | 2.03 | — | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 59.1% | 1.69 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 60.8% | 1.64 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 74.8% | 1.34 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 50.7% | 1.97 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Motherwell | 49.3% |
| Draw | 25.2% | |
| ST Mirren | 25.5% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 59.1% |
| Under 2.5 | 40.9% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 60.8% |
| No | 39.2% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 74.5% |
| 12 (either side) | 74.8% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 50.7% | |
| Handicap -1 | Motherwell win | 27.9% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21.4% | |
| Loss | 50.7% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 11.7% |
| 2-1 | 9.6% | |
| 2-0 | 7.6% |
Motherwell vs ST Mirren stats
Motherwell and ST Mirren recent form
| Motherwell |
LLLLLW |
| ST Mirren |
WLLLLL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Motherwell and ST Mirren season so far
Motherwell record
- They have won 2 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They average 1.6 goals per game on the road against 0.8 at home.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 9 matches.
ST Mirren record
- They have won 3 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 9 matches.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 9 matches.
- 50% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Motherwell vs ST Mirren head-to-head
Last 4 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-30 | ST Mirren | Motherwell | Scotland Premiership | 3-3 |
| 2026-02-21 | ST Mirren | Motherwell | Scotland Premiership | 0-5 |
| 2026-01-03 | Motherwell | ST Mirren | Scotland Premiership | 2-0 |
| 2025-08-09 | ST Mirren | Motherwell | Scotland Premiership | 0-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.