Ararat-Armenia
vs
Alashkert
Garuda Lions Prediction: Alashkert
1 – 2 Predicted score · 9% model probability
Ararat-Armenia vs Alashkert overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Ararat-Armenia vs Alashkert
| Probability | Ararat-Armenia | Draw | Alashkert |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 34.8% | 27.0% | 38.2% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Final | 34.8% | 27.0% | 38.2% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Ararat-Armenia vs Alashkert match preview
Ararat-Armenia will face Alashkert in the Armenia Premier League on October 10, 2026. The model indicates a close contest, with Alashkert holding a slight edge at 38% probability of winning compared to Ararat-Armenia's 35%. The most likely scoreline is 1-2, with a 9% probability. Both teams are expected to contribute to the score, with a 60% chance of both teams finding the net.
In terms of recent form, Ararat-Armenia has recorded three wins and three losses in their last six matches, while Alashkert has two wins, three draws, and one loss. The expected goals for Ararat-Armenia stand at 1.42, while Alashkert's is slightly higher at 1.49. The likelihood of over 2.5 goals in the match is 56%.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Ararat-Armenia and Alashkert expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.91
Ararat-Armenia and Alashkert attack and defence ratings
Ararat-Armenia
Alashkert
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 9 fixtures
Before and after this match
Ararat-Armenia vs Alashkert markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Alashkert | 38.2% | 2.62 | — | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 55.7% | 1.80 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 59.9% | 1.67 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 73.0% | 1.37 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 61.8% | 1.62 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Ararat-Armenia | 34.8% |
| Draw | 27.0% | |
| Alashkert | 38.2% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 55.7% |
| Under 2.5 | 44.3% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 59.9% |
| No | 40.1% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 61.8% |
| 12 (either side) | 73.0% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 65.2% | |
| Handicap -1 | Alashkert win | 19.0% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 19.2% | |
| Loss | 61.8% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 12.7% |
| 1-2 | 8.6% | |
| 2-1 | 8.2% |
Ararat-Armenia vs Alashkert stats
Ararat-Armenia and Alashkert recent form
| Ararat-Armenia |
WLWWLW |
| Alashkert |
DDWDWL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Ararat-Armenia and Alashkert season so far
Ararat-Armenia record
- They have won 6 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 2.1 goals per match.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 8 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- 32% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Alashkert record
- They have won 4 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 2.2 goals per match.
- They average 3.2 goals per game at home against 0.7 on the road.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 8 matches.
- 33% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Ararat-Armenia vs Alashkert head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-06 | Ararat-Armenia | Alashkert | Armenia Premier League | 1-1 |
| 2026-03-07 | Alashkert | Ararat-Armenia | Armenia Premier League | 1-0 |
| 2025-09-25 | Ararat-Armenia | Alashkert | Armenia Premier League | 2-1 |
| 2025-03-22 | Ararat-Armenia | Alashkert | Friendlies Clubs | 0-1 |
| 2025-03-15 | Ararat-Armenia | Alashkert | Premier League | 3-0 |
| 2024-11-27 | Alashkert | Ararat-Armenia | Premier League | 2-2 |
| 2024-08-30 | Ararat-Armenia | Alashkert | Premier League | 3-1 |
| 2024-05-26 | Alashkert | Ararat-Armenia | Premier League | 1-3 |
| 2024-04-04 | Ararat-Armenia | Alashkert | Premier League | 2-1 |
| 2023-11-30 | Alashkert | Ararat-Armenia | Premier League | 1-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.