FC Urartu
vs
Ararat
Garuda Lions Prediction: FC Urartu
1 – 0 Predicted score · 11% model probability
FC Urartu vs Ararat overview
Garuda Lions analysis: FC Urartu vs Ararat
| Probability | FC Urartu | Draw | Ararat |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 54.9% | 26.2% | 18.9% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Final | 54.9% | 26.2% | 18.9% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Why FC Urartu
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.70 vs 0.91.
FC Urartu vs Ararat match preview
FC Urartu is set to face Ararat in the Armenia Premier League, with a kickoff scheduled for October 11, 2026. The model indicates a 55% probability of a win for FC Urartu, compared to 19% for Ararat, while a draw stands at 26%. The expected goals for FC Urartu is 1.70, while Ararat is projected at 0.91. The most likely scoreline is 1-0, occurring with an 11% probability.
In terms of recent form, FC Urartu has recorded two wins, one draw, and two losses in their last five matches, while Ararat has achieved three wins and three losses in the same timeframe. Historically, FC Urartu has dominated their recent encounters, winning all three of their last meetings against Ararat. The probabilities and expected outcomes reflect a competitive matchup, with both teams having a 50% chance of scoring.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
FC Urartu and Ararat expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.61
FC Urartu and Ararat attack and defence ratings
FC Urartu
Ararat
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 9 fixtures
Before and after this match
FC Urartu vs Ararat markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | FC Urartu | 54.9% | 1.82 | — | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 51.5% | 1.94 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 50.1% | 2.00 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 81.1% | 1.23 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 45.1% | 2.22 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | FC Urartu | 54.9% |
| Draw | 26.2% | |
| Ararat | 18.9% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 48.5% |
| Under 2.5 | 51.5% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 50.1% |
| No | 49.9% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 81.1% |
| 12 (either side) | 73.8% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 45.1% | |
| Handicap -1 | FC Urartu win | 31.0% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 23.9% | |
| Loss | 45.1% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 12.5% |
| 1-0 | 11.3% | |
| 2-0 | 10.6% |
FC Urartu vs Ararat stats
FC Urartu and Ararat recent form
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
FC Urartu and Ararat season so far
FC Urartu record
- They have won 2 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
- They average 1.5 goals per game at home against 1.0 on the road.
- 36% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Ararat record
- They have won 2 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 0.7 goals per match.
- They average 1.0 goals per game on the road against 0.3 at home.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 7 matches.
FC Urartu vs Ararat head-to-head
Last 3 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-10 | Ararat | FC Urartu | Armenia Premier League | 0-1 |
| 2025-11-03 | Ararat | FC Urartu | Armenia Premier League | 0-1 |
| 2025-09-19 | FC Urartu | Ararat | Armenia Premier League | 6-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.