Gandzasar
vs
Sardarapat
Garuda Lions Prediction: Sardarapat
1 – 2 Predicted score · 10% model probability
Gandzasar vs Sardarapat overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Gandzasar vs Sardarapat
| Probability | Gandzasar | Draw | Sardarapat |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 13.6% | 19.6% | 66.7% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Final | 13.6% | 19.6% | 66.7% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Why Sardarapat
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.36 vs 1.00.
- Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
Gandzasar vs Sardarapat match preview
Gandzasar faces Sardarapat in the Armenia Premier League with a significant disparity in form. Gandzasar has struggled recently, recording six consecutive losses, while Sardarapat's recent results include two draws, a win, and a loss. According to our model, the probabilities for this match show Gandzasar at 14% to win, a draw at 20%, and Sardarapat at 67%. The expected goals for Gandzasar are 1.00, compared to Sardarapat's 2.36.
The most likely scoreline predicted by our model is 1-2, occurring with a probability of 10%. Additionally, there is a 65% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 58% probability that both teams will score. The confidence grade for this forecast is C, indicating moderate certainty in these predictions.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Gandzasar and Sardarapat expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.36
Gandzasar and Sardarapat attack and defence ratings
Gandzasar
Sardarapat
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 10 fixtures
Before and after this match
Gandzasar vs Sardarapat markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Sardarapat | 66.7% | 1.50 | — | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 65.3% | 1.53 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 58.1% | 1.72 | — | — |
| Double chance | X2 (draw or away) | 86.4% | 1.16 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Sardarapat win | 45.0% | 2.22 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Gandzasar | 13.6% |
| Draw | 19.6% | |
| Sardarapat | 66.7% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 65.3% |
| Under 2.5 | 34.7% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 58.1% |
| No | 41.9% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 33.3% |
| 12 (either side) | 80.4% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 86.4% | |
| Handicap -1 | Sardarapat win | 45.0% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21.7% | |
| Loss | 33.3% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-2 | 9.7% |
| 0-2 | 9.7% | |
| 1-1 | 9.0% |
Gandzasar vs Sardarapat stats
Gandzasar and Sardarapat recent form
| Gandzasar |
LLLLLL |
| Sardarapat |
DDWLWD |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Gandzasar and Sardarapat season so far
Gandzasar record
- They have won 1 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 5 of 8 matches.
- 59% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Sardarapat record
- They have won 3 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 1.9 goals per match.
- 36% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.