Ararat-Armenia
vs
FC Noah
Garuda Lions Prediction: FC Noah
0 – 2 Predicted score · 10% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.20 vs 0.98.
- RiskNo bookmaker prices recorded yet, so this pick has not been checked against the market.
Ararat-Armenia vs FC Noah overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Ararat-Armenia vs FC Noah
| Probability | Ararat-Armenia | Draw | FC Noah |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 14.7% | 21.0% | 64.2% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Final | 14.7% | 21.0% | 64.2% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Why FC Noah
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.20 vs 0.98.
- Better recent form: 5 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
Ararat-Armenia vs FC Noah match preview
In the upcoming match between Ararat-Armenia and FC Noah, the probabilities indicate a strong advantage for FC Noah, with a 64% likelihood of victory compared to Ararat-Armenia's 15%. The most likely scoreline forecasted is 0-2, occurring with a 10% probability. The expected goals suggest a significant disparity, with Ararat-Armenia projected to score 0.98 goals and FC Noah 2.21 goals.
Recent form shows Ararat-Armenia struggling with a record of L-W-L-D-W-L, while FC Noah has been in excellent shape, going D-W-W-W-W-W. The head-to-head statistics reveal a balanced competition, with each team having one win and one draw in their last three encounters. The model indicates a 62% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 56% chance for both teams to score.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Ararat-Armenia and FC Noah expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.19
Ararat-Armenia and FC Noah attack and defence ratings
Ararat-Armenia
FC Noah
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 11 fixtures
Before and after this match
Ararat-Armenia vs FC Noah markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | FC Noah | 64.2% | 1.56 | — | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 61.7% | 1.62 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 56.5% | 1.77 | — | — |
| Double chance | X2 (draw or away) | 85.3% | 1.17 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | FC Noah win | 41.9% | 2.39 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Ararat-Armenia | 14.7% |
| Draw | 21.0% | |
| FC Noah | 64.2% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 61.7% |
| Under 2.5 | 38.3% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 56.5% |
| No | 43.5% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 35.8% |
| 12 (either side) | 79.0% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 85.3% | |
| Handicap -1 | FC Noah win | 41.9% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22.3% | |
| Loss | 35.8% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 0-2 | 10.0% |
| 1-2 | 9.9% | |
| 1-1 | 9.8% |
Ararat-Armenia vs FC Noah stats
Ararat-Armenia and FC Noah recent form
| Ararat-Armenia |
LWLDWL |
| FC Noah |
DWWWWW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Ararat-Armenia and FC Noah season so far
Ararat-Armenia record
- They have won 7 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 1.9 goals per match.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 10 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
FC Noah record
- They have won 9 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 2.7 goals per match.
- They average 3.2 goals per game on the road against 2.3 at home.
- They have kept 6 clean sheets in 10 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 9 matches.
Ararat-Armenia vs FC Noah head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-10 | Ararat-Armenia | FC Noah | Armenia Premier League | 0-4 |
| 2026-04-29 | FC Noah | Ararat-Armenia | Cup | 0-0 |
| 2026-04-16 | Ararat-Armenia | FC Noah | Cup | 0-1 |
| 2026-03-12 | FC Noah | Ararat-Armenia | Super Cup | 1-1 |
| 2025-11-01 | FC Noah | Ararat-Armenia | Armenia Premier League | 1-2 |
| 2025-09-20 | Ararat-Armenia | FC Noah | Armenia Premier League | 2-2 |
| 2025-05-24 | FC Noah | Ararat-Armenia | Premier League | 2-0 |
| 2025-05-13 | FC Noah | Ararat-Armenia | Cup | 3-1 |
| 2024-12-04 | FC Noah | Ararat-Armenia | Premier League | 2-1 |
| 2024-10-28 | Ararat-Armenia | FC Noah | Premier League | 0-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.