Shirak
vs
Alashkert
Garuda Lions Prediction: Alashkert
0 – 2 Predicted score · 10% model probability
Shirak vs Alashkert overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Shirak vs Alashkert
| Probability | Shirak | Draw | Alashkert |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 17.1% | 23.9% | 59.0% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Final | 17.1% | 23.9% | 59.0% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Why Alashkert
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.92 vs 0.95.
Shirak vs Alashkert match preview
In the upcoming match between Shirak and Alashkert, the probabilities suggest a strong advantage for Alashkert, with a 59% chance of victory compared to Shirak's 17%. The most likely scoreline predicted is 0-2, occurring at a rate of 10%. Both teams are anticipated to score, with a 53% probability, while there is a 55% chance that the match will feature over 2.5 goals.
Analyzing recent form, Shirak has recorded three losses, one win, and another loss in their last five matches, while Alashkert has managed two wins and three draws. In their last three encounters, Shirak has yet to secure a win against Alashkert, with two losses and one draw. Expected goals indicate Shirak at 0.95 and Alashkert at 1.92, further highlighting Alashkert's offensive edge.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Shirak and Alashkert expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.86
Shirak and Alashkert attack and defence ratings
Shirak
Alashkert
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 11 fixtures
Before and after this match
Shirak vs Alashkert markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Alashkert | 59.0% | 1.69 | — | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 54.5% | 1.83 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 53.2% | 1.88 | — | — |
| Double chance | X2 (draw or away) | 82.9% | 1.21 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 41.0% | 2.44 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Shirak | 17.1% |
| Draw | 23.9% | |
| Alashkert | 59.0% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 54.5% |
| Under 2.5 | 45.5% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 53.2% |
| No | 46.8% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 41.0% |
| 12 (either side) | 76.1% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 82.9% | |
| Handicap -1 | Alashkert win | 35.7% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 23.3% | |
| Loss | 41.0% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 11.4% |
| 0-2 | 10.5% | |
| 1-2 | 9.9% |
Shirak vs Alashkert stats
Shirak and Alashkert recent form
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Shirak and Alashkert season so far
Shirak record
- They have won 3 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They average 1.5 goals per game at home against 1.0 on the road.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 9 matches.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 9 matches.
Alashkert record
- They have won 4 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 2.1 goals per match.
- They average 3.2 goals per game at home against 0.8 on the road.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 9 matches.
- 32% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Shirak vs Alashkert head-to-head
Last 3 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-26 | Alashkert | Shirak | Armenia Premier League | 2-0 |
| 2025-10-17 | Shirak | Alashkert | Armenia Premier League | 1-2 |
| 2025-10-03 | Alashkert | Shirak | Armenia Premier League | 1-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.