Ararat
vs
Alashkert
Garuda Lions Prediction: Alashkert
0 – 2 Predicted score · 10% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.95 vs 0.96.
- RiskNo bookmaker prices recorded yet, so this pick has not been checked against the market.
Ararat vs Alashkert overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Ararat vs Alashkert
| Probability | Ararat | Draw | Alashkert |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 17.0% | 23.6% | 59.4% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Final | 17.0% | 23.6% | 59.4% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Why Alashkert
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.95 vs 0.96.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
Ararat vs Alashkert match preview
In the upcoming Armenia Premier League match, Ararat faces Alashkert with a kickoff scheduled for October 31, 2026. According to our model, Ararat has a 17% chance of winning, while Alashkert is favored at 60%. The predicted scoreline is 1-2, occurring with a 10% likelihood. Both teams have shown some recent form, with Ararat recording a mixed bag of results (L-D-D-W-W-L) and Alashkert remaining more consistent with a sequence of results that includes three draws (W-D-D-D-W-D).
The expected goals for this match indicate Ararat at 1.04 and Alashkert at 2.06, suggesting a higher offensive output from Alashkert. Additionally, there is a 60% probability of over 2.5 goals being scored, and a 57% chance that both teams will find the net. Historically, Alashkert has dominated their recent matchups, winning all four of the last encounters against Ararat.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Ararat and Alashkert expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.91
Ararat and Alashkert attack and defence ratings
Ararat
Alashkert
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 12 fixtures
Before and after this match
Ararat vs Alashkert markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Alashkert | 59.4% | 1.68 | — | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 55.7% | 1.79 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 54.1% | 1.85 | — | — |
| Double chance | X2 (draw or away) | 83.0% | 1.21 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 40.6% | 2.46 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Ararat | 17.0% |
| Draw | 23.6% | |
| Alashkert | 59.4% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 55.7% |
| Under 2.5 | 44.3% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 54.1% |
| No | 45.9% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 40.6% |
| 12 (either side) | 76.4% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 83.0% | |
| Handicap -1 | Alashkert win | 36.2% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 23.2% | |
| Loss | 40.6% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 11.2% |
| 0-2 | 10.3% | |
| 1-2 | 9.9% |
Ararat vs Alashkert stats
Ararat and Alashkert recent form
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Ararat and Alashkert season so far
Ararat record
- They have won 3 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 0.9 goals per match.
- They average 1.2 goals per game on the road against 0.6 at home.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 10 matches.
- 37% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Alashkert record
- They have won 5 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 2.4 goals per match.
- They average 3.5 goals per game at home against 0.8 on the road.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 10 matches.
- 30% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Ararat vs Alashkert head-to-head
Last 4 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-03 | Alashkert | Ararat | Armenia Premier League | 3-0 |
| 2026-04-14 | Alashkert | Ararat | Armenia Premier League | 2-0 |
| 2026-04-11 | Ararat | Alashkert | Armenia Premier League | 2-3 |
| 2025-08-16 | Alashkert | Ararat | Armenia Premier League | 3-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.