BKMA
vs
Alashkert
Garuda Lions Prediction: Alashkert
0 – 2 Predicted score · 12% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.30 vs 0.76.
- RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — Alashkert is the favourite, not a value bet.
BKMA vs Alashkert overview
Garuda Lions analysis: BKMA vs Alashkert
| Probability | BKMA | Draw | Alashkert |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 10.0% | 19.0% | 70.9% |
| Market | 9.5% | 17.9% | 72.6% |
| Final | 9.6% | 18.2% | 72.2% |
| Edge | +0.1% | +0.3% | -0.4% |
Why Alashkert
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.30 vs 0.76.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
Best available price on the pick: 1.29, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -6.9% per unit staked (our 72.2% × 1.29 − 1).
BKMA vs Alashkert match preview
BKMA faces Alashkert in the Armenia Premier League with a significant disparity in recent form. BKMA has struggled, recording four losses followed by a draw, while Alashkert has been more successful, winning three of their last five matches and drawing twice. The probabilities indicate a strong likelihood of an Alashkert victory at 72%, with a predicted scoreline of 0-2 being the most probable outcome at 12%.
Expected goals suggest a challenging match for BKMA, with an expected total of 0.76 compared to Alashkert's 2.29. The model also indicates a 59% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance for both teams to score. Historically, Alashkert has performed well against BKMA, winning six of their last ten encounters.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
BKMA and Alashkert expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.06
BKMA and Alashkert attack and defence ratings
BKMA
Alashkert
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 13 fixtures
Before and after this match
BKMA vs Alashkert markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Alashkert | 72.2% | 1.38 | -0.4% | 1.29 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 58.8% | 1.70 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 51.2% | 1.95 | — | — |
| Double chance | X2 (draw or away) | 90.4% | 1.11 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Alashkert win | 48.7% | 2.05 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | BKMA | 9.6% |
| Draw | 18.2% | |
| Alashkert | 72.2% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 58.8% |
| Under 2.5 | 41.2% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 48.8% |
| No | 51.2% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 27.8% |
| 12 (either side) | 81.8% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 90.4% | |
| Handicap -1 | Alashkert win | 48.7% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22.6% | |
| Loss | 28.7% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 0-2 | 12.4% |
| 0-1 | 10.0% | |
| 1-2 | 9.5% |
BKMA vs Alashkert stats
BKMA and Alashkert recent form
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
BKMA and Alashkert season so far
BKMA record
- They have won 2 of their 12 league games this season, scoring 0.8 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 5 of 12 matches.
- 35% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Alashkert record
- They have won 7 of their 12 league games this season, scoring 2.2 goals per match.
- They average 3.5 goals per game at home against 1.0 on the road.
- They have kept 6 clean sheets in 12 matches.
- 35% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
BKMA vs Alashkert head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-28 | Alashkert | BKMA | Cup | 4-0 |
| 2026-08-10 | Alashkert | BKMA | Armenia Premier League | 3-0 |
| 2026-05-02 | BKMA | Alashkert | Armenia Premier League | 2-2 |
| 2025-11-08 | Alashkert | BKMA | Armenia Premier League | 2-0 |
| 2025-09-13 | BKMA | Alashkert | Armenia Premier League | 1-3 |
| 2025-05-22 | BKMA | Alashkert | Premier League | 2-0 |
| 2024-10-27 | Alashkert | BKMA | Premier League | 2-0 |
| 2024-10-07 | BKMA | Alashkert | Premier League | 1-0 |
| 2024-04-28 | Alashkert | BKMA | Premier League | 0-0 |
| 2024-02-27 | BKMA | Alashkert | Premier League | 0-6 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
BKMA vs Alashkert odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 9.5%, draw 17.9%, away 72.6%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 10.20 | 5.05 | 1.23 |
| Bet365 | 7.50 | 5.25 | 1.25 |
| BetVictor | 11.00 | 5.25 | 1.22 |
| Betano | 7.90 | 4.85 | 1.29 |
| Betfair | 10.00 | 5.00 | 1.22 |
| Dafabet | 8.80 | 5.40 | 1.27 |
| Marathonbet | 9.60 | 5.05 | 1.22 |
| Pinnacle | 9.59 | 5.71 | 1.24 |
| SBO | 7.34 | 4.78 | 1.26 |
| William Hill | 9.50 | 5.00 | 1.25 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
2 snapshots recorded, from .