FC Noah
vs
Shirak
Garuda Lions Prediction: FC Noah
2 – 0 Predicted score · 13% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.27 vs 0.76.
- RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — FC Noah is the favourite, not a value bet.
FC Noah vs Shirak overview
Garuda Lions analysis: FC Noah vs Shirak
| Probability | FC Noah | Draw | Shirak |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 70.8% | 19.2% | 10.0% |
| Market | 76.8% | 15.0% | 8.2% |
| Final | 75.3% | 16.0% | 8.6% |
| Edge | -1.5% | +1.0% | +0.5% |
Why FC Noah
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.27 vs 0.76.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Best available price on the pick: 1.20, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -9.6% per unit staked (our 75.3% × 1.20 − 1).
FC Noah vs Shirak match preview
FC Noah enters this match against Shirak with a strong probability of winning at 70%, reflecting their recent form of L-D-W-W-W-W. The expected goals for FC Noah stand at 2.19, while Shirak is projected to score only 0.75, indicating a significant disparity in offensive capabilities. The most likely scoreline predicted by our model is 2-0, occurring with a 13% probability.
In contrast, Shirak's recent performance has been less impressive, with a record of W-L-D-L-L-L. The head-to-head statistics favor FC Noah, who has won all of the last four encounters against Shirak without conceding a draw. With a 56% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% probability for both teams to score, this match could see FC Noah asserting their dominance once again.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
FC Noah and Shirak expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.02
FC Noah and Shirak attack and defence ratings
FC Noah
Shirak
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 13 fixtures
Before and after this match
FC Noah vs Shirak markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | FC Noah | 75.3% | 1.33 | -1.5% | 1.20 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 58.2% | 1.72 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 51.6% | 1.94 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 91.4% | 1.09 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | FC Noah win | 48.0% | 2.08 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | FC Noah | 75.3% |
| Draw | 16.0% | |
| Shirak | 8.6% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 58.2% |
| Under 2.5 | 41.8% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 48.4% |
| No | 51.6% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 91.4% |
| 12 (either side) | 84.0% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 24.7% | |
| Handicap -1 | FC Noah win | 48.0% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22.8% | |
| Loss | 29.2% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 2-0 | 12.5% |
| 1-0 | 10.2% | |
| 3-0 | 9.5% |
FC Noah vs Shirak stats
FC Noah and Shirak recent form
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
FC Noah and Shirak season so far
FC Noah record
- They have won 10 of their 12 league games this season, scoring 2.6 goals per match.
- They average 2.8 goals per game on the road against 2.3 at home.
- They have kept 6 clean sheets in 12 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 9 matches.
- They have converted 2 of 3 penalties (67%).
Shirak record
- They have won 4 of their 12 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 12 matches.
- They have failed to score in 5 of 12 matches.
- 38% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
FC Noah vs Shirak head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-09 | Shirak | FC Noah | Armenia Premier League | 3-4 |
| 2026-03-22 | FC Noah | Shirak | Armenia Premier League | 3-0 |
| 2026-03-16 | Shirak | FC Noah | Armenia Premier League | 0-2 |
| 2025-08-03 | FC Noah | Shirak | Armenia Premier League | 4-0 |
| 2025-03-29 | Shirak | FC Noah | Premier League | 1-2 |
| 2025-03-02 | FC Noah | Shirak | Premier League | 4-0 |
| 2024-08-11 | Shirak | FC Noah | Premier League | 0-5 |
| 2024-04-27 | Shirak | FC Noah | Premier League | 1-0 |
| 2024-02-26 | FC Noah | Shirak | Premier League | 1-0 |
| 2023-10-26 | Shirak | FC Noah | Premier League | 0-2 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
FC Noah vs Shirak odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 76.8%, draw 15.0%, away 8.2%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.14 | 6.05 | 12.00 |
| Bet365 | 1.20 | 6.00 | 9.50 |
| Betano | 1.20 | 5.70 | 9.75 |
| Betfair | 1.15 | 6.50 | 13.00 |
| Dafabet | 1.19 | 6.80 | 11.00 |
| Marathonbet | 1.14 | 6.05 | 12.00 |
| Pinnacle | 1.17 | 6.64 | 11.22 |
| William Hill | 1.20 | 5.80 | 11.00 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
2 snapshots recorded, from .