Sardarapat
vs
Ararat
Garuda Lions Prediction: Sardarapat
2 – 1 Predicted score · 10% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.93 vs 1.06.
- RiskGrade C: weaker evidence — both clubs are rated on goals scored and conceded, not on the chances they created.
Sardarapat vs Ararat overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Sardarapat vs Ararat
| Probability | Sardarapat | Draw | Ararat |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 56.8% | 24.0% | 19.3% |
| Market | 41.1% | 27.7% | 31.2% |
| Final | 45.0% | 26.7% | 28.2% |
| Edge | +3.9% | -0.9% | -3.0% |
Why Sardarapat
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.93 vs 1.06.
- The market prices Sardarapat below our published probability: +3.9 percentage points of edge.
Best available price on the pick: 2.26, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: +1.7% per unit staked (our 45.0% × 2.26 − 1).
Sardarapat vs Ararat match preview
Sardarapat hosts Ararat in an intriguing matchup in the Armenia Premier League. According to our model, Sardarapat has a 53% probability of winning, while Ararat stands at 22%. The most likely scoreline is projected to be 2-1 in favor of Sardarapat, with an expected goals tally of 1.88 for Sardarapat and 1.17 for Ararat. Both teams are expected to score, with a probability of 59% for this outcome.
Recent form shows Sardarapat with a mixed bag of results, recording two draws, a win, and two losses in their last six matches. In contrast, Ararat has experienced a similar trend, with two draws, two wins, and a loss in their last six games. The head-to-head record favors Sardarapat, who won the last encounter. The confidence grade for this match is C.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Sardarapat and Ararat expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.99
Sardarapat and Ararat attack and defence ratings
Sardarapat
Ararat
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 13 fixtures
Before and after this match
Sardarapat vs Ararat markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Sardarapat | 45.0% | 2.22 | +3.9% | 2.26 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 57.4% | 1.74 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 56.8% | 1.76 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 73.3% | 1.36 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 43.2% | 2.31 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Sardarapat | 45.0% |
| Draw | 26.7% | |
| Ararat | 28.2% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 57.4% |
| Under 2.5 | 42.6% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 56.8% |
| No | 43.2% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 71.8% |
| 12 (either side) | 73.3% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 55.0% | |
| Handicap -1 | Sardarapat win | 34.1% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22.7% | |
| Loss | 43.2% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 11.3% |
| 2-1 | 9.9% | |
| 2-0 | 9.4% |
Sardarapat vs Ararat stats
Sardarapat and Ararat recent form
| Sardarapat |
DDWLDD |
| Ararat |
LLDDWW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Sardarapat and Ararat season so far
Sardarapat record
- They have won 4 of their 12 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
- They have converted 2 of 3 penalties (67%).
- 32% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Ararat record
- They have won 3 of their 12 league games this season, scoring 0.8 goals per match.
- They average 1.2 goals per game on the road against 0.5 at home.
- They have failed to score in 5 of 12 matches.
- 31% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Sardarapat vs Ararat head-to-head
Last 4 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-07 | Ararat | Sardarapat | Armenia Premier League | 1-2 |
| 2026-07-19 | Ararat | Sardarapat | Friendlies Clubs | 1-1 |
| 2026-02-06 | Ararat | Sardarapat | Friendlies Clubs | 5-1 |
| 2025-10-30 | Sardarapat | Ararat | Cup | 0-3 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Sardarapat vs Ararat odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 41.1%, draw 27.7%, away 31.2%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.16 | 3.24 | 2.97 |
| Bet365 | 2.20 | 3.40 | 2.80 |
| Betano | 2.20 | 3.25 | 2.87 |
| Betfair | 2.20 | 3.40 | 2.88 |
| Dafabet | 2.24 | 3.40 | 2.95 |
| Marathonbet | 2.14 | 3.24 | 2.89 |
| Pinnacle | 2.26 | 3.29 | 2.94 |
| William Hill | 2.25 | 3.10 | 2.90 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
2 snapshots recorded, from .