Sardarapat
vs
Van
Garuda Lions Prediction: Sardarapat
2 – 1 Predicted score · 10% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.17 vs 1.14.
- RiskNo bookmaker prices recorded yet, so this pick has not been checked against the market.
Sardarapat vs Van overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Sardarapat vs Van
| Probability | Sardarapat | Draw | Van |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 59.8% | 21.9% | 18.3% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Final | 59.8% | 21.9% | 18.3% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Why Sardarapat
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.17 vs 1.14.
Sardarapat vs Van match preview
Sardarapat is favored to win against Van with a probability of 60%, while the chances of a draw stand at 22% and Van at 18%. The most likely scoreline predicted by our model is 2-1, occurring at a rate of 10%. The expectation for over 2.5 goals is 64%, and both teams scoring is projected at 61%. Sardarapat's expected goals are 2.16, compared to Van's 1.15.
In terms of recent form, Sardarapat has drawn twice and lost three times in their last six matches, while Van has won three and lost three in the same span. The last head-to-head encounter saw Sardarapat secure a victory, with a record of 1 win for Sardarapat and 0 for Van. The confidence grade for this match is C.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Sardarapat and Van expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.31
Sardarapat and Van attack and defence ratings
Sardarapat
Van
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 12 fixtures
Before and after this match
Sardarapat vs Van markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Sardarapat | 59.8% | 1.67 | — | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 64.3% | 1.56 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 61.2% | 1.63 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 81.7% | 1.22 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 40.2% | 2.49 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Sardarapat | 59.8% |
| Draw | 21.9% | |
| Van | 18.3% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 64.3% |
| Under 2.5 | 35.7% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 61.2% |
| No | 38.8% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 81.7% |
| 12 (either side) | 78.1% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 40.2% | |
| Handicap -1 | Sardarapat win | 38.0% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21.8% | |
| Loss | 40.2% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 9.9% |
| 2-1 | 9.8% | |
| 2-0 | 8.6% |
Sardarapat vs Van stats
Sardarapat and Van recent form
| Sardarapat |
DWLDDL |
| Van |
WLWLWL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Sardarapat and Van season so far
Sardarapat record
- They have won 4 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 1.7 goals per match.
- They have converted 2 of 3 penalties (67%).
- 31% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Van record
- They have won 2 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 0.8 goals per match.
- They average 1.2 goals per game at home against 0.4 on the road.
- They have failed to score in 5 of 10 matches.
Sardarapat vs Van head-to-head
Last 1 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-31 | Van | Sardarapat | Armenia Premier League | 1-4 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.