Ararat-Armenia
vs
Gandzasar
Garuda Lions Prediction: Ararat-Armenia
2 – 0 Predicted score · 12% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.26 vs 0.77.
- RiskNo bookmaker prices recorded yet, so this pick has not been checked against the market.
Ararat-Armenia vs Gandzasar overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Ararat-Armenia vs Gandzasar
| Probability | Ararat-Armenia | Draw | Gandzasar |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 70.3% | 19.4% | 10.3% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Final | 70.3% | 19.4% | 10.3% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Why Ararat-Armenia
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.26 vs 0.77.
- Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
Ararat-Armenia vs Gandzasar match preview
Ararat-Armenia is set to face Gandzasar in the Armenia Premier League, with a strong probability of winning at 70%. The expected goals for Ararat-Armenia stand at 2.26, while Gandzasar is projected to score only 0.77. Recent form shows Ararat-Armenia with mixed results, including two wins and three losses in their last six matches, whereas Gandzasar has struggled significantly, losing all six of their recent games.
Our model predicts a most likely scoreline of 2-0 in favor of Ararat-Armenia, which has a 12% likelihood. Additionally, there is a 58% chance of over 2.5 goals being scored in the match, and both teams have a nearly equal probability of scoring at 49%. The head-to-head record favors Ararat-Armenia, who has won all four of their last encounters against Gandzasar.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Ararat-Armenia and Gandzasar expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.03
Ararat-Armenia and Gandzasar attack and defence ratings
Ararat-Armenia
Gandzasar
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 12 fixtures
Before and after this match
Ararat-Armenia vs Gandzasar markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Ararat-Armenia | 70.3% | 1.42 | — | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 58.2% | 1.72 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 51.2% | 1.95 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 89.7% | 1.12 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Ararat-Armenia win | 47.5% | 2.11 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Ararat-Armenia | 70.3% |
| Draw | 19.4% | |
| Gandzasar | 10.3% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 58.2% |
| Under 2.5 | 41.8% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 48.8% |
| No | 51.2% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 89.7% |
| 12 (either side) | 80.6% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 29.7% | |
| Handicap -1 | Ararat-Armenia win | 47.5% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22.8% | |
| Loss | 29.7% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 2-0 | 12.4% |
| 1-0 | 10.1% | |
| 2-1 | 9.5% |
Ararat-Armenia vs Gandzasar stats
Ararat-Armenia and Gandzasar recent form
| Ararat-Armenia |
LWLDWL |
| Gandzasar |
LLLLLL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Ararat-Armenia and Gandzasar season so far
Ararat-Armenia record
- They have won 7 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 1.9 goals per match.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 10 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
Gandzasar record
- They have won 1 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 0.9 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 6 of 10 matches.
- 48% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Ararat-Armenia vs Gandzasar head-to-head
Last 4 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-01 | Gandzasar | Ararat-Armenia | Armenia Premier League | 3-4 |
| 2026-05-27 | Ararat-Armenia | Gandzasar | Armenia Premier League | 1-0 |
| 2025-10-19 | Gandzasar | Ararat-Armenia | Armenia Premier League | 0-1 |
| 2025-10-05 | Ararat-Armenia | Gandzasar | Armenia Premier League | 1-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.