FC Urartu
vs
Ararat-Armenia
Garuda Lions Prediction: FC Urartu
2 – 1 Predicted score · 9% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.75 vs 1.28.
- RiskNo bookmaker prices recorded yet, so this pick has not been checked against the market.
FC Urartu vs Ararat-Armenia overview
Garuda Lions analysis: FC Urartu vs Ararat-Armenia
| Probability | FC Urartu | Draw | Ararat-Armenia |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 47.4% | 25.6% | 27.0% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Final | 47.4% | 25.6% | 27.0% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Why FC Urartu
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.75 vs 1.28.
FC Urartu vs Ararat-Armenia match preview
FC Urartu faces Ararat-Armenia in the Armenia Premier League, with FC Urartu holding a 51% probability of winning according to our model. The expected goals for FC Urartu stand at 1.71, while Ararat-Armenia is projected to score 1.09. The most likely scoreline is 2-1 in favor of FC Urartu, which has a 10% likelihood.
In terms of recent form, FC Urartu has recorded one win in their last six matches, while Ararat-Armenia has been more successful, securing three wins in their last six. Historically, in their last four encounters, FC Urartu has not won, with Ararat-Armenia winning three times and the teams drawing once. The probabilities for over 2.5 goals and both teams to score are 53% and 56%, respectively.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
FC Urartu and Ararat-Armenia expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.02
FC Urartu and Ararat-Armenia attack and defence ratings
FC Urartu
Ararat-Armenia
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 13 fixtures
Before and after this match
FC Urartu vs Ararat-Armenia markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | FC Urartu | 47.4% | 2.11 | — | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 58.2% | 1.72 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 60.6% | 1.65 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 74.4% | 1.34 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 52.6% | 1.90 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | FC Urartu | 47.4% |
| Draw | 25.6% | |
| Ararat-Armenia | 27.0% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 58.2% |
| Under 2.5 | 41.8% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 60.6% |
| No | 39.4% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 73.0% |
| 12 (either side) | 74.4% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 52.6% | |
| Handicap -1 | FC Urartu win | 26.2% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21.1% | |
| Loss | 52.6% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 11.9% |
| 2-1 | 9.5% | |
| 2-0 | 7.4% |
FC Urartu vs Ararat-Armenia stats
FC Urartu and Ararat-Armenia recent form
| FC Urartu |
LDWDWL |
| Ararat-Armenia |
LWWLWL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
FC Urartu and Ararat-Armenia season so far
FC Urartu record
- They have won 4 of their 11 league games this season, scoring 1.7 goals per match.
- They average 2.2 goals per game at home against 1.2 on the road.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 11 matches.
- 33% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Ararat-Armenia record
- They have won 8 of their 11 league games this season, scoring 1.9 goals per match.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 11 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- 31% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
FC Urartu vs Ararat-Armenia head-to-head
Last 4 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-07 | Ararat-Armenia | FC Urartu | Armenia Premier League | 2-1 |
| 2026-05-03 | FC Urartu | Ararat-Armenia | Armenia Premier League | 0-2 |
| 2025-11-08 | Ararat-Armenia | FC Urartu | Armenia Premier League | 1-1 |
| 2025-09-14 | FC Urartu | Ararat-Armenia | Armenia Premier League | 2-3 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.