Olympiakos
vs
Apollon Limassol
Garuda Lions Prediction: Apollon Limassol
1 – 2 Predicted score · 9% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.16 vs 1.46.
- RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — Apollon Limassol is the favourite, not a value bet.
Olympiakos vs Apollon Limassol overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Olympiakos vs Apollon Limassol
| Probability | Olympiakos | Draw | Apollon Limassol |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 25.0% | 22.3% | 52.7% |
| Market | 21.1% | 23.8% | 55.1% |
| Final | 22.0% | 23.4% | 54.5% |
| Edge | +1.0% | -0.4% | -0.6% |
Why Apollon Limassol
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.16 vs 1.46.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
Best available price on the pick: 1.71, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -6.8% per unit staked (our 54.5% × 1.71 − 1).
Olympiakos vs Apollon Limassol match preview
Olympiakos faces Apollon Limassol in a match where the probabilities indicate a strong advantage for the visitors, with Apollon Limassol at 53% to win compared to Olympiakos' 25%. The most likely scoreline predicted by our model is 1-2, occurring at a rate of 9%. Both teams are expected to contribute to a high-scoring game, with a 70% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 69% likelihood of both teams scoring.
In terms of recent form, Olympiakos has struggled, recording three draws and two losses in their last five matches. In contrast, Apollon Limassol has shown better form, with three wins and two draws in their last five outings. The expected goals for Olympiakos stand at 1.46, while Apollon Limassol is projected at 2.16, further reflecting the anticipated competitive nature of this fixture.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Olympiakos and Apollon Limassol expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.62
Olympiakos and Apollon Limassol attack and defence ratings
Olympiakos
Apollon Limassol
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 9 fixtures
Before and after this match
Olympiakos vs Apollon Limassol markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Apollon Limassol | 54.5% | 1.83 | -0.6% | 1.71 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 70.1% | 1.43 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 68.8% | 1.45 | — | — |
| Double chance | X2 (draw or away) | 78.0% | 1.28 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 47.3% | 2.11 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Olympiakos | 22.0% |
| Draw | 23.4% | |
| Apollon Limassol | 54.5% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 70.1% |
| Under 2.5 | 29.9% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 68.8% |
| No | 31.2% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 45.5% |
| 12 (either side) | 76.6% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 78.0% | |
| Handicap -1 | Apollon Limassol win | 32.4% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20.3% | |
| Loss | 47.3% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 9.3% |
| 1-2 | 9.1% | |
| 2-2 | 6.7% |
Olympiakos vs Apollon Limassol stats
Olympiakos and Apollon Limassol recent form
| Olympiakos |
LDDLDD |
| Apollon Limassol |
DWWWDD |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Olympiakos and Apollon Limassol season so far
Olympiakos record
- They have won 0 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- They average 2.0 goals per game at home against 0.8 on the road.
- 47% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Apollon Limassol record
- They have won 4 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 2.6 goals per match.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).
- 30% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Olympiakos vs Apollon Limassol head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-08 | Apollon Limassol | Olympiakos | Cyprus 1. Division | 3-1 |
| 2025-10-25 | Olympiakos | Apollon Limassol | Cyprus 1. Division | 2-2 |
| 2025-08-06 | Apollon Limassol | Olympiakos | Friendlies Clubs | 3-2 |
| 2023-01-27 | Apollon Limassol | Olympiakos | 1. Division | 2-1 |
| 2022-10-21 | Olympiakos | Apollon Limassol | 1. Division | 1-1 |
| 2022-01-30 | Apollon Limassol | Olympiakos | 1. Division | 2-1 |
| 2021-10-31 | Olympiakos | Apollon Limassol | 1. Division | 0-2 |
| 2021-05-04 | Apollon Limassol | Olympiakos | 1. Division | 2-2 |
| 2021-03-21 | Olympiakos | Apollon Limassol | 1. Division | 0-2 |
| 2021-01-17 | Apollon Limassol | Olympiakos | 1. Division | 2-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Olympiakos vs Apollon Limassol odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 21.1%, draw 23.8%, away 55.1%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 4.49 | 3.84 | 1.68 |
| Bet365 | 4.20 | 4.00 | 1.70 |
| Betano | 4.35 | 3.90 | 1.70 |
| Betfair | 4.33 | 3.90 | 1.67 |
| Dafabet | 4.40 | 3.90 | 1.71 |
| Marathonbet | 4.50 | 3.84 | 1.66 |
| Pinnacle | 4.51 | 3.89 | 1.69 |
| SBO | 3.98 | 3.44 | 1.60 |
| William Hill | 4.50 | 3.50 | 1.67 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
8 snapshots recorded, from .