Apoel Nicosia
vs
Aris
Garuda Lions Prediction: Apoel Nicosia
2 – 1 Predicted score · 9% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.88 vs 1.36.
- RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — Apoel Nicosia is the favourite, not a value bet.
Apoel Nicosia vs Aris overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Apoel Nicosia vs Aris
| Probability | Apoel Nicosia | Draw | Aris |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 48.8% | 24.5% | 26.8% |
| Market | 47.3% | 26.4% | 26.4% |
| Final | 47.7% | 25.9% | 26.5% |
| Edge | +0.4% | -0.5% | +0.1% |
Why Apoel Nicosia
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.88 vs 1.36.
Best available price on the pick: 1.99, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -5.2% per unit staked (our 47.7% × 1.99 − 1).
Apoel Nicosia vs Aris match preview
Apoel Nicosia is set to face Aris in the Cyprus 1. Division with kickoff scheduled for November 8, 2026. According to our model, Apoel Nicosia holds a 49% probability of winning, while Aris has a 27% chance and a draw is estimated at 24%. The expected goals for Apoel Nicosia is 1.88 compared to Aris's 1.36, suggesting a competitive match. The most likely scoreline predicted is 2-1 in favor of Apoel Nicosia, with a 9% likelihood.
In terms of recent form, Apoel Nicosia has recorded two wins, two draws, and one loss in their last five matches, while Aris boasts a strong performance with five consecutive wins and one draw. Additionally, our model indicates a 63% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 64% likelihood that both teams will score. The confidence grade for this match is C.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Apoel Nicosia and Aris expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.24
Apoel Nicosia and Aris attack and defence ratings
Apoel Nicosia
Aris
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 9 fixtures
Before and after this match
Apoel Nicosia vs Aris markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Apoel Nicosia | 47.7% | 2.10 | +0.4% | 1.99 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 62.8% | 1.59 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 63.9% | 1.56 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 74.1% | 1.35 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 51.2% | 1.95 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Apoel Nicosia | 47.7% |
| Draw | 25.9% | |
| Aris | 26.5% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 62.8% |
| Under 2.5 | 37.2% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 63.9% |
| No | 36.1% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 73.5% |
| 12 (either side) | 74.1% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 52.3% | |
| Handicap -1 | Apoel Nicosia win | 28.0% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20.8% | |
| Loss | 51.2% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 11.0% |
| 2-1 | 9.4% | |
| 2-0 | 6.9% |
Apoel Nicosia vs Aris stats
Apoel Nicosia and Aris recent form
| Apoel Nicosia |
WWDWDL |
| Aris |
WWDWDW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Apoel Nicosia and Aris season so far
Apoel Nicosia record
- They have won 3 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 2.3 goals per match.
- They average 4.0 goals per game at home against 1.0 on the road.
- They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).
- 53% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Aris record
- They have won 3 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- They average 2.0 goals per game on the road against 1.0 at home.
- 39% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Apoel Nicosia vs Aris head-to-head
Last 4 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-06 | Aris | Apoel Nicosia | Cyprus 1. Division | 1-0 |
| 2026-04-05 | Apoel Nicosia | Aris | Cyprus 1. Division | 2-1 |
| 2026-03-15 | Aris | Apoel Nicosia | Cyprus 1. Division | 1-2 |
| 2025-12-07 | Apoel Nicosia | Aris | Cyprus 1. Division | 2-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Apoel Nicosia vs Aris odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 47.3%, draw 26.4%, away 26.4%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.97 | 3.50 | 3.52 |
| Bet365 | 1.90 | 3.50 | 3.60 |
| Betano | 1.91 | 3.50 | 3.85 |
| Betfair | 1.95 | 3.40 | 3.30 |
| Dafabet | 1.99 | 3.50 | 3.45 |
| Marathonbet | 1.95 | 3.50 | 3.50 |
| Pinnacle | 1.96 | 3.54 | 3.58 |
| SBO | 1.91 | 3.05 | 3.14 |
| William Hill | 1.95 | 3.20 | 3.40 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
8 snapshots recorded, from .