Nea Salamis
vs
Omonia Aradippou
Garuda Lions Prediction: Nea Salamis
1 – 0 Predicted score · 11% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.43 vs 1.01.
- RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — Nea Salamis is the favourite, not a value bet.
Nea Salamis vs Omonia Aradippou overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Nea Salamis vs Omonia Aradippou
| Probability | Nea Salamis | Draw | Omonia Aradippou |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 45.5% | 29.1% | 25.4% |
| Market | 44.2% | 28.8% | 27.0% |
| Final | 44.5% | 28.9% | 26.6% |
| Edge | +0.3% | +0.1% | -0.4% |
Why Nea Salamis
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.43 vs 1.01.
- Better recent form: 1 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
Best available price on the pick: 2.16, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -3.8% per unit staked (our 44.5% × 2.16 − 1).
Nea Salamis vs Omonia Aradippou match preview
Nea Salamis hosts Omonia Aradippou in a matchup where the probabilities favor Nea Salamis at 47%, with a draw at 28% and Omonia Aradippou at 25%. The expected goals indicate Nea Salamis at 1.43 and Omonia Aradippou at 1.01, suggesting a competitive encounter. The most likely scoreline predicted by the model is 1-0, occurring at an 11% probability.
In terms of recent form, Nea Salamis has recorded a mixed set of results with one win in their last six matches (L-D-L-L-W-L), while Omonia Aradippou has struggled significantly, with four consecutive losses followed by two draws (L-L-L-L-D-D). Historically, in their last six encounters, Nea Salamis has secured three wins, while Omonia Aradippou has two victories and one draw.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Nea Salamis and Omonia Aradippou expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.45
Nea Salamis and Omonia Aradippou attack and defence ratings
Nea Salamis
Omonia Aradippou
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 9 fixtures
Before and after this match
Nea Salamis vs Omonia Aradippou markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Nea Salamis | 44.5% | 2.25 | +0.3% | 2.16 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 55.7% | 1.80 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 50.2% | 1.99 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 73.4% | 1.36 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 54.5% | 1.83 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Nea Salamis | 44.5% |
| Draw | 28.9% | |
| Omonia Aradippou | 26.6% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 44.3% |
| Under 2.5 | 55.7% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 49.8% |
| No | 50.2% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 73.4% |
| 12 (either side) | 71.1% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 55.5% | |
| Handicap -1 | Nea Salamis win | 22.8% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22.6% | |
| Loss | 54.5% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 13.8% |
| 1-0 | 11.1% | |
| 0-0 | 9.9% |
Nea Salamis vs Omonia Aradippou stats
Nea Salamis and Omonia Aradippou recent form
| Nea Salamis |
LDLLWL |
| Omonia Aradippou |
LLLLDD |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Nea Salamis and Omonia Aradippou season so far
Nea Salamis record
- They have won 1 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- 39% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Omonia Aradippou record
- They have won 1 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 0.6 goals per match.
- They average 1.0 goals per game at home against 0.2 on the road.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 8 matches.
Nea Salamis vs Omonia Aradippou head-to-head
Last 6 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-04-07 | Omonia Aradippou | Nea Salamis | 1. Division | 0-2 |
| 2025-03-01 | Nea Salamis | Omonia Aradippou | 1. Division | 2-3 |
| 2024-12-01 | Omonia Aradippou | Nea Salamis | 1. Division | 1-0 |
| 2022-04-17 | Nea Salamis | Omonia Aradippou | 2. Division | 2-0 |
| 2021-12-11 | Omonia Aradippou | Nea Salamis | 2. Division | 1-2 |
| 2020-07-29 | Nea Salamis | Omonia Aradippou | Friendlies Clubs | 0-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Nea Salamis vs Omonia Aradippou odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 44.2%, draw 28.8%, away 27.0%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.09 | 3.22 | 3.44 |
| Bet365 | 1.95 | 3.25 | 3.60 |
| BetVictor | 2.10 | 3.30 | 3.30 |
| Betano | 2.07 | 3.20 | 3.60 |
| Betfair | 1.83 | 3.40 | 3.90 |
| Dafabet | 2.16 | 3.25 | 3.35 |
| Marathonbet | 2.07 | 3.22 | 3.42 |
| Pinnacle | 2.10 | 3.20 | 3.53 |
| SBO | 2.11 | 2.94 | 2.97 |
| William Hill | 2.10 | 3.00 | 3.30 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
8 snapshots recorded, from .