AEL
vs
Krasava Ypsonas
Garuda Lions Prediction: AEL
2 – 1 Predicted score · 10% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.85 vs 1.22.
- RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — AEL is the favourite, not a value bet.
AEL vs Krasava Ypsonas overview
Garuda Lions analysis: AEL vs Krasava Ypsonas
| Probability | AEL | Draw | Krasava Ypsonas |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 51.2% | 24.8% | 24.0% |
| Market | 61.9% | 22.6% | 15.5% |
| Final | 59.2% | 23.2% | 17.6% |
| Edge | -2.7% | +0.5% | +2.1% |
Why AEL
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.85 vs 1.22.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Best available price on the pick: 1.52, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -10.0% per unit staked (our 59.2% × 1.52 − 1).
AEL vs Krasava Ypsonas match preview
AEL enters this match with a 56% probability of winning against Krasava Ypsonas, who has a 21% chance of securing a victory. The most likely scoreline predicted by our model is 2-1 in favor of AEL, with an expected goals tally of 2.03 for AEL compared to 1.19 for Krasava Ypsonas. The model also indicates a 62% likelihood of over 2.5 goals being scored and a 61% chance for both teams to find the net.
In terms of recent form, AEL has recorded a mixed set of results with two wins and a loss in their last six matches, while Krasava Ypsonas has struggled, managing only one win in their last six outings. The head-to-head record shows a competitive balance, with AEL winning once, Krasava Ypsonas also winning once, and one match ending in a draw.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
AEL and Krasava Ypsonas expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.07
AEL and Krasava Ypsonas attack and defence ratings
AEL
Krasava Ypsonas
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 9 fixtures
Before and after this match
AEL vs Krasava Ypsonas markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | AEL | 59.2% | 1.69 | -2.7% | 1.52 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 59.3% | 1.69 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 60.4% | 1.65 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 82.4% | 1.21 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 48.8% | 2.05 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | AEL | 59.2% |
| Draw | 23.2% | |
| Krasava Ypsonas | 17.6% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 59.3% |
| Under 2.5 | 40.7% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 60.4% |
| No | 39.6% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 82.4% |
| 12 (either side) | 76.8% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 40.8% | |
| Handicap -1 | AEL win | 29.6% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21.7% | |
| Loss | 48.8% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 11.5% |
| 2-1 | 9.7% | |
| 2-0 | 8.0% |
AEL vs Krasava Ypsonas stats
AEL and Krasava Ypsonas recent form
| AEL |
LLWWWW |
| Krasava Ypsonas |
DDWLLL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
AEL and Krasava Ypsonas season so far
AEL record
- They have won 5 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- They average 1.8 goals per game at home against 1.0 on the road.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 8 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
Krasava Ypsonas record
- They have won 1 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
- They have converted 2 of 3 penalties (67%).
AEL vs Krasava Ypsonas head-to-head
Last 3 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-02 | Krasava Ypsonas | AEL | Cyprus 1. Division | 1-1 |
| 2026-02-09 | Krasava Ypsonas | AEL | Cyprus 1. Division | 3-0 |
| 2025-10-26 | AEL | Krasava Ypsonas | Cyprus 1. Division | 1-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
AEL vs Krasava Ypsonas odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 61.9%, draw 22.6%, away 15.5%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.49 | 4.10 | 6.08 |
| Bet365 | 1.44 | 4.33 | 6.50 |
| Betano | 1.52 | 4.05 | 6.10 |
| Betfair | 1.50 | 4.10 | 5.50 |
| Dafabet | 1.51 | 4.30 | 5.80 |
| Marathonbet | 1.48 | 4.10 | 6.00 |
| Pinnacle | 1.51 | 4.11 | 6.11 |
| SBO | 1.43 | 3.70 | 5.03 |
| William Hill | 1.50 | 3.80 | 5.50 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
8 snapshots recorded, from .