AEK Larnaca
vs
Karmiotissa
Garuda Lions Prediction: AEK Larnaca
2 – 0 Predicted score · 13% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.37 vs 0.68.
- RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — AEK Larnaca is the favourite, not a value bet.
AEK Larnaca vs Karmiotissa overview
Garuda Lions analysis: AEK Larnaca vs Karmiotissa
| Probability | AEK Larnaca | Draw | Karmiotissa |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 74.2% | 17.6% | 8.2% |
| Market | 78.6% | 14.3% | 7.1% |
| Final | 77.5% | 15.1% | 7.4% |
| Edge | -1.1% | +0.8% | +0.3% |
Why AEK Larnaca
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.37 vs 0.68.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Best available price on the pick: 1.21, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -6.2% per unit staked (our 77.5% × 1.21 − 1).
AEK Larnaca vs Karmiotissa match preview
AEK Larnaca enters the match against Karmiotissa with a strong probability of winning at 77%, while Karmiotissa has an 8% chance. The most likely scoreline predicted by the model is 2-0, with an expected goals tally of 2.37 for AEK Larnaca and 0.68 for Karmiotissa. Recent form shows AEK Larnaca with a mixed record of D-W-D-W-W-L, while Karmiotissa has struggled, recording W-L-L-L-D-D.
In terms of goal-scoring potential, there is a 59% likelihood of over 2.5 goals, and both teams have a 46% chance of scoring. Historically, AEK Larnaca has dominated their encounters with Karmiotissa, winning 8 of the last 10 matches, with Karmiotissa yet to secure a victory in this fixture. The confidence grade for this prediction is C.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
AEK Larnaca and Karmiotissa expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.05
AEK Larnaca and Karmiotissa attack and defence ratings
AEK Larnaca
Karmiotissa
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 9 fixtures
Before and after this match
AEK Larnaca vs Karmiotissa markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | AEK Larnaca | 77.5% | 1.29 | -1.1% | 1.21 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 58.9% | 1.70 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 54.3% | 1.84 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 92.6% | 1.08 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | AEK Larnaca win | 51.9% | 1.93 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | AEK Larnaca | 77.5% |
| Draw | 15.1% | |
| Karmiotissa | 7.4% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 58.9% |
| Under 2.5 | 41.1% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 45.7% |
| No | 54.3% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 92.6% |
| 12 (either side) | 84.9% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 22.5% | |
| Handicap -1 | AEK Larnaca win | 51.9% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22.3% | |
| Loss | 25.8% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 2-0 | 13.2% |
| 3-0 | 10.5% | |
| 1-0 | 10.4% |
AEK Larnaca vs Karmiotissa stats
AEK Larnaca and Karmiotissa recent form
| AEK Larnaca |
DWDWWL |
| Karmiotissa |
WLLLDD |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
AEK Larnaca and Karmiotissa season so far
AEK Larnaca record
- They have won 5 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 1.9 goals per match.
- They average 2.2 goals per game on the road against 1.5 at home.
Karmiotissa record
- They have won 1 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 0.6 goals per match.
- They average 1.0 goals per game on the road against 0.4 at home.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 8 matches.
- 38% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
AEK Larnaca vs Karmiotissa head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-02-22 | Karmiotissa | AEK Larnaca | 1. Division | 0-3 |
| 2024-11-25 | AEK Larnaca | Karmiotissa | 1. Division | 2-0 |
| 2024-01-26 | Karmiotissa | AEK Larnaca | 1. Division | 1-3 |
| 2023-10-21 | AEK Larnaca | Karmiotissa | 1. Division | 5-0 |
| 2023-02-04 | Karmiotissa | AEK Larnaca | 1. Division | 1-3 |
| 2022-10-30 | AEK Larnaca | Karmiotissa | 1. Division | 4-0 |
| 2020-12-23 | AEK Larnaca | Karmiotissa | 1. Division | 1-0 |
| 2020-09-13 | Karmiotissa | AEK Larnaca | 1. Division | 0-0 |
| 2020-07-29 | AEK Larnaca | Karmiotissa | Friendlies Clubs | 4-4 |
| 2020-01-22 | Karmiotissa | AEK Larnaca | Cup | 0-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
AEK Larnaca vs Karmiotissa odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 78.6%, draw 14.3%, away 7.1%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.18 | 6.50 | 13.60 |
| Bet365 | 1.18 | 6.50 | 12.00 |
| BetVictor | 1.15 | 7.00 | 13.00 |
| Betano | 1.21 | 6.40 | 11.75 |
| Betfair | 1.14 | 6.00 | 13.00 |
| Dafabet | 1.18 | 6.80 | 13.00 |
| Marathonbet | 1.16 | 6.50 | 13.75 |
| Pinnacle | 1.19 | 6.86 | 11.57 |
| SBO | 1.16 | 5.80 | 9.45 |
| William Hill | 1.18 | 6.00 | 13.00 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
8 snapshots recorded, from .