Apoel Nicosia
vs
Nea Salamis
Garuda Lions Prediction: Apoel Nicosia
2 – 1 Predicted score · 8% model probability
Apoel Nicosia vs Nea Salamis overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Apoel Nicosia vs Nea Salamis
| Probability | Apoel Nicosia | Draw | Nea Salamis |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 41.7% | 22.7% | 35.6% |
| Market | 60.6% | 23.3% | 16.1% |
| Final | 55.8% | 23.2% | 21.0% |
| Edge | -18.9% | -0.6% | +19.5% |
Best available price on the pick: 1.55, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update.
Apoel Nicosia vs Nea Salamis match preview
Apoel Nicosia faces Nea Salamis in an upcoming Cyprus 1. Division match on October 10, 2026. The model indicates a 42% probability of an Apoel Nicosia victory, while Nea Salamis has a 36% chance of winning, and a draw stands at 23%. The expected goals for Apoel Nicosia are 1.99, slightly higher than Nea Salamis's 1.84, suggesting a competitive matchup.
Recent form shows Apoel Nicosia with a record of D-L-W-L-L-L, while Nea Salamis has a mixed record of W-L-L-D. The most likely scoreline is 2-1 in favor of Apoel Nicosia, with a 74% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 73% probability that both teams will score. The confidence grade for these predictions is C, based solely on model data.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Apoel Nicosia and Nea Salamis expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.83
Apoel Nicosia and Nea Salamis attack and defence ratings
Apoel Nicosia
Nea Salamis
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 5 fixtures
Before and after this match
Apoel Nicosia vs Nea Salamis markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Apoel Nicosia | 55.8% | 1.79 | -18.9% | 1.55 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 73.6% | 1.36 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 73.4% | 1.36 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 79.0% | 1.27 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 58.7% | 1.70 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Apoel Nicosia | 55.8% |
| Draw | 23.2% | |
| Nea Salamis | 21.0% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 73.6% |
| Under 2.5 | 26.4% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 73.4% |
| No | 26.6% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 79.0% |
| 12 (either side) | 76.8% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 44.2% | |
| Handicap -1 | Apoel Nicosia win | 23.4% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 18.0% | |
| Loss | 58.7% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 8.7% |
| 2-1 | 7.9% | |
| 1-2 | 7.3% |
Apoel Nicosia vs Nea Salamis stats
Apoel Nicosia and Nea Salamis recent form
| Apoel Nicosia |
DLWLLL |
| Nea Salamis |
WLLD |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Apoel Nicosia vs Nea Salamis head-to-head
Last 9 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-01-08 | Nea Salamis | Apoel Nicosia | 1. Division | 1-1 |
| 2024-09-22 | Apoel Nicosia | Nea Salamis | 1. Division | 3-1 |
| 2024-01-26 | Nea Salamis | Apoel Nicosia | 1. Division | 0-4 |
| 2023-10-21 | Apoel Nicosia | Nea Salamis | 1. Division | 1-0 |
| 2023-03-06 | Apoel Nicosia | Nea Salamis | 1. Division | 3-0 |
| 2022-12-03 | Nea Salamis | Apoel Nicosia | 1. Division | 1-3 |
| 2021-09-22 | Apoel Nicosia | Nea Salamis | Cup | 2-0 |
| 2021-05-20 | Apoel Nicosia | Nea Salamis | 1. Division | 0-0 |
| 2021-04-04 | Nea Salamis | Apoel Nicosia | 1. Division | 1-2 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Apoel Nicosia vs Nea Salamis odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 60.6%, draw 23.3%, away 16.1%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.53 | 4.00 | 5.69 |
| Bet365 | 1.53 | 3.90 | 5.50 |
| BetVictor | 1.50 | 3.90 | 6.00 |
| Betano | 1.55 | 3.95 | 5.80 |
| Betfair | 1.47 | 4.00 | 6.00 |
| Dafabet | 1.53 | 4.10 | 5.80 |
| Marathonbet | 1.51 | 4.00 | 5.75 |
| Pinnacle | 1.53 | 3.97 | 5.75 |
| William Hill | 1.50 | 3.70 | 5.50 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
12 snapshots recorded, from .