Pafos
vs
AEL
0 – 2 Full time
| 35′ | N. Ioannou | ||
| 42′ | Bruno | ||
| 46′ | N. IoannouBiel | ||
| 46′ | F. R. Mughe | ||
| 53′ | L. Singh | ||
| 55′ | V. DragomirGuga | ||
| 55′ | I. SunjicAnderson Silva | ||
| 66′ | F. R. MugheSergio Conceicao | ||
| 66′ | N. Moumi NgamaleuD. Quina | ||
| 66′ | BrunoY. Zague | ||
| 70′ | Lele | ||
| 71′ | J. Tavares | ||
| 75′ | L. SinghJ. Tavares | ||
| 75′ | J. TavaresS. Denswil | ||
| 90′ | G. PapageorgiouA. Karo | ||
| 90′ | S. JoveticD. Paroutis | ||
| 90′ | Guga |
Pafos vs AEL overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Pafos vs AEL
| Probability | Pafos | Draw | AEL |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 61.3% | 22.7% | 16.1% |
| Market | 64.7% | 21.1% | 14.3% |
| Final | 63.8% | 21.5% | 14.7% |
| Edge | -3.4% | +1.6% | +1.8% |
Why Pafos
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.04 vs 0.96.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Pafos and AEL expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.00
Pafos and AEL attack and defence ratings
Pafos
AEL
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Pafos vs AEL: result vs prediction
Pafos 0 – 2 AEL
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| BTTS pick | ✗ Incorrect |
Other Matchday 4 fixtures
Before and after this match
Pafos vs AEL markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Pafos | 63.8% | 1.57 | -3.4% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 57.7% | 1.73 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 54.8% | 1.83 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 85.3% | 1.17 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 38.7% | 2.58 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Pafos | 63.8% |
| Draw | 21.5% | |
| AEL | 14.7% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 57.7% |
| Under 2.5 | 42.3% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 54.8% |
| No | 45.2% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 85.3% |
| 12 (either side) | 78.5% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 36.2% | |
| Handicap -1 | Pafos win | 38.3% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22.9% | |
| Loss | 38.7% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 10.7% |
| 2-0 | 10.3% | |
| 2-1 | 9.9% |
Pafos vs AEL stats
Pafos vs AEL head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-22 | Pafos | AEL | Cup | 3-1 |
| 2026-04-08 | AEL | Pafos | Cup | 1-2 |
| 2026-02-15 | AEL | Pafos | Cyprus 1. Division | 0-1 |
| 2025-11-02 | Pafos | AEL | Cyprus 1. Division | 1-0 |
| 2025-01-06 | Pafos | AEL | 1. Division | 4-0 |
| 2024-09-22 | AEL | Pafos | 1. Division | 1-3 |
| 2023-12-23 | AEL | Pafos | 1. Division | 1-2 |
| 2023-09-02 | Pafos | AEL | 1. Division | 3-1 |
| 2023-02-08 | Pafos | AEL | 1. Division | 1-0 |
| 2022-11-06 | AEL | Pafos | 1. Division | 1-3 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Pafos vs AEL odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 64.7%, draw 21.1%, away 14.3%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.42 | 4.33 | 6.93 |
| Bet365 | 1.45 | 4.10 | 6.25 |
| BetVictor | 1.40 | 4.40 | 6.50 |
| Betano | 1.50 | 4.35 | 5.80 |
| Betfair | 1.36 | 4.40 | 6.50 |
| Marathonbet | 1.41 | 4.33 | 6.85 |
| Pinnacle | 1.44 | 4.42 | 6.28 |
| SBO | 1.33 | 4.24 | 6.38 |
| William Hill | 1.40 | 4.00 | 6.00 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
9 snapshots recorded, from .