Garuda Lions
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Cyprus 1. Division · Full time ·Matchday 3

AEK Larnaca vs Pafos

0 – 1 Full time

12′D. Quina
32′I. Sunjic
59′K. PileasB. Olivan
59′D. IvanovicY. Chacon
59′J. RepasK. Mrabti
60′K. SemaBiel
60′LeleV. Dragomir
62′V. Dragomir
68′A. TricaN. Andereggen
73′N. IoannouY. Zague
76′N. Moumi NgamaleuGuga
76′D. QuinaAnderson Silva
78′I. PankovC. Kyriakou
90′Miramon

AEK Arena, LarnacaReferee: A. Menelaos

AEK Larnaca 40%
Draw 28%
Pafos 32%

Confidence: Low  ·  blended with market odds

AEK Larnaca vs Pafos overview

Garuda Lions analysis: AEK Larnaca vs Pafos

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityAEK LarnacaDrawPafos
Model45.8%25.3%28.9%
Market38.7%28.7%32.6%
Final40.5%27.9%31.7%
Edge+7.1%-3.4%-3.7%

Confidence: Low

Why AEK Larnaca

  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.76 vs 1.37.
  • Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
  • The market prices AEK Larnaca below the model: +7.1 percentage points of edge.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

AEK Larnaca ↓ / Pafos → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 1 7% 12% 7% 2 7% 9% 6% 3 4+

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 95%
2+ goals 83%
3+ goals 61%
No goals 5%

AEK Larnaca and Pafos expected goals

AEK Larnaca 1.76
Pafos 1.37

Total expected goals: 3.13

AEK Larnaca and Pafos attack and defence ratings

AEK Larnaca

Attack 1.37 +37%
Defence 0.96 -4%

Pafos

Attack 1.19 +19%
Defence 0.87 -13%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

AEK Larnaca vs Pafos: result vs prediction

AEK Larnaca 0 – 1 Pafos

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✗ Incorrect
Over/Under 2.5 pick✗ Incorrect
BTTS pick✗ Incorrect

Other Matchday 3 fixtures

Cyprus 1. Division

Before and after this match

AEK Larnaca vs Pafos markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 AEK Larnaca 40.5% 2.47 +7.1% —
Over/Under 2.5 Over 2.5 60.6% 1.65 — —
Both teams to score Yes 62.9% 1.59 — —
Double chance 12 (either side) 72.1% 1.39 — —
Handicap -1 Loss 54.2% 1.84 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2AEK Larnaca40.5%
Draw27.9%
Pafos31.7%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.560.6%
Under 2.539.4%
Both teams to scoreYes62.9%
No37.1%
Double chance1X (home or draw)68.3%
12 (either side)72.1%
X2 (draw or away)59.5%
Handicap -1AEK Larnaca win25.3%
Push (exactly one goal)20.5%
Loss54.2%
Correct score (top 3)1-111.6%
2-19.3%
1-27.2%

AEK Larnaca vs Pafos stats

AEK Larnaca and Pafos recent form

newest first
AEK Larnaca WWWLWD
Pafos DWWDDL

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

AEK Larnaca vs Pafos head-to-head

Last 10 meetings

2AEK Larnaca wins 5Draws 3Pafos wins
DateHomeAwayCompetitionScore
2026-05-16AEK LarnacaPafosCyprus 1. Division2-2
2026-04-18PafosAEK LarnacaCyprus 1. Division1-1
2026-01-25PafosAEK LarnacaCyprus 1. Division1-2
2025-10-30PafosAEK LarnacaSuper Cup1-1
2025-10-05AEK LarnacaPafosCyprus 1. Division2-4
2025-05-24AEK LarnacaPafosCup0-0
2025-05-18PafosAEK Larnaca1. Division2-0
2025-04-13AEK LarnacaPafos1. Division2-2
2024-12-22PafosAEK Larnaca1. Division0-1
2024-09-01AEK LarnacaPafos1. Division0-2

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

AEK Larnaca vs Pafos odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 38.7%, draw 28.7%, away 32.6%.

Bookmaker1X2
1xBet 2.56 3.12 2.72
Bet365 2.35 3.25 2.80
BetVictor 2.30 3.30 2.80
Betano 2.52 3.15 2.80
Betfair 2.30 3.30 2.63
Marathonbet 2.56 3.12 2.72
SBO 2.24 2.94 2.60
William Hill 2.30 3.00 2.80

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 2.33 —
X 3.13 ▼ -0.20
2 2.76 ▼ -0.06

11 snapshots recorded, from .