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Cyprus 1. Division · Full time ·Matchday 3

AEL vs Nea Salamis

2 – 1 Full time

22′B. Konate
34′J. Tavares
43′Sergio Conceicao
44′D. M. Ribeiro Gomes
45′R. Oudin
46′J. TavaresD. Zdravkovski
50′K. Neofytou
53′S. Grandsir
54′E. Antoniou
54′P. Louka
55′P. LoukaK. Angielski
55′B. KonateJ. Quintilla
58′G. ViktorosA. Panagiotou Filiotis
67′G. Christodoulou
69′K. Angielski
73′G. ChristodoulouK. Ilia
73′S. GrandsirAldair
76′K. NeofytouG. Papageorgiou
82′J. TavaresD. Paroutis
88′F. R. MugheA. Karamanis
90′K. Angielski
90′Aldair
90′D. M. Ribeiro Gomes

Alphamega Stadium, KolossiReferee: K. Fotiou

AEL 46%
Draw 27%
Nea Salamis 27%

Confidence: Low  ·  blended with market odds

AEL vs Nea Salamis overview

Garuda Lions analysis: AEL vs Nea Salamis

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityAELDrawNea Salamis
Model44.2%22.9%32.9%
Market47.2%28.2%24.6%
Final46.5%26.9%26.7%
Edge-3.1%-5.3%+8.4%

Confidence: Low

Why AEL

  • Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

AEL ↓ / Nea Salamis → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 1 9% 7% 2 5% 8% 7% 3 6% 5% 4+

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 97%
2+ goals 90%
3+ goals 72%
No goals 3%

AEL and Nea Salamis expected goals

AEL 2.02
Nea Salamis 1.73

Total expected goals: 3.75

AEL and Nea Salamis attack and defence ratings

AEL

Attack 0.93 -7%
Defence 1.27 +27%

Nea Salamis

Attack 1.13 +13%
Defence 1.46 +46%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

AEL vs Nea Salamis: result vs prediction

AEL 2 – 1 Nea Salamis

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✓ Correct
Over/Under 2.5 pick✓ Correct
BTTS pick✓ Correct

Other Matchday 3 fixtures

Cyprus 1. Division

Before and after this match

AEL vs Nea Salamis markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 AEL 46.5% 2.15 -3.1% —
Over/Under 2.5 Over 2.5 72.3% 1.38 — —
Both teams to score Yes 72.2% 1.39 — —
Double chance 1X (home or draw) 73.3% 1.36 — —
Handicap -1 Loss 55.8% 1.79 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2AEL46.5%
Draw26.9%
Nea Salamis26.7%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.572.3%
Under 2.527.7%
Both teams to scoreYes72.2%
No27.8%
Double chance1X (home or draw)73.3%
12 (either side)73.1%
X2 (draw or away)53.5%
Handicap -1AEL win25.4%
Push (exactly one goal)18.7%
Loss55.8%
Correct score (top 3)1-19.0%
2-18.3%
2-27.2%

AEL vs Nea Salamis stats

AEL and Nea Salamis recent form

newest first
AEL LWWLDL
Nea Salamis LD

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

AEL vs Nea Salamis head-to-head

Last 10 meetings

5AEL wins 4Draws 1Nea Salamis wins
DateHomeAwayCompetitionScore
2025-04-12Nea SalamisAEL1. Division1-3
2025-01-24AELNea Salamis1. Division0-0
2024-10-21Nea SalamisAEL1. Division0-2
2024-08-11Nea SalamisAELFriendlies Clubs1-1
2024-04-24AELNea Salamis1. Division5-4
2024-03-11Nea SalamisAEL1. Division1-1
2024-02-01AELNea Salamis1. Division3-1
2023-10-28Nea SalamisAEL1. Division2-1
2023-05-04AELNea Salamis1. Division3-3
2023-03-18Nea SalamisAEL1. Division2-3

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

AEL vs Nea Salamis odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 46.6%, draw 27.6%, away 25.7%.

Bookmaker1X2
10Bet 1.95 3.35 3.40
1xBet 1.98 3.30 3.76
888Sport 1.95 3.10 3.40
Bet365 1.95 3.20 3.80
BetVictor 1.95 3.25 3.70
Betano 2.05 3.40 3.45
Betfair 2.00 3.40 3.40
Dafabet 2.02 3.45 3.50
Marathonbet 1.97 3.28 3.74
Pinnacle 1.95 3.32 3.78
Superbet 2.05 3.40 3.45
William Hill 1.95 3.00 3.60

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 1.95 ▼ -0.10
X 3.26 ▼ -0.14
2 3.75 ▲ +0.41

8 snapshots recorded, from .