Grobiņa
vs
Riga
Garuda Lions Prediction: Riga
0 – 1 Predicted score · 12% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.51 vs 0.94.
- RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — Riga is the favourite, not a value bet.
Grobiņa vs Riga overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Grobiņa vs Riga
| Probability | Grobiņa | Draw | Riga |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 22.1% | 28.4% | 49.5% |
| Market | 8.5% | 14.4% | 77.0% |
| Final | 11.9% | 17.9% | 70.1% |
| Edge | +3.4% | +3.5% | -6.9% |
Why Riga
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.51 vs 0.94.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
Best available price on the pick: 1.22, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -14.4% per unit staked (our 70.1% × 1.22 − 1).
Grobiņa vs Riga match preview
Grobiņa faces Riga in an upcoming Virsliga match, with the model suggesting a 20% chance of a Grobiņa victory, a 27% probability of a draw, and a 53% likelihood of a Riga win. The expected goals for Grobiņa stand at 0.91, while Riga is projected at 1.62, indicating a significant disparity in offensive capabilities. The most likely scoreline is 0-1, occurring with a 12% probability.
In terms of recent form, Grobiņa has recorded a mixed performance with two wins, two draws, and a loss in their last five matches. In contrast, Riga has been more consistent, achieving four wins and two draws in the same timeframe. Historically, Grobiņa has struggled against Riga, with no wins and only one draw in their last seven encounters. The model indicates a 47% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% probability for both teams to score.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Grobiņa and Riga expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.45
Grobiņa and Riga attack and defence ratings
Grobiņa
Riga
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 34 fixtures
Before and after this match
Grobiņa vs Riga markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Riga | 70.1% | 1.43 | -6.9% | 1.22 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 55.6% | 1.80 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 51.3% | 1.95 | — | — |
| Double chance | X2 (draw or away) | 88.1% | 1.14 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 50.5% | 1.98 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Grobiņa | 11.9% |
| Draw | 17.9% | |
| Riga | 70.1% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 44.4% |
| Under 2.5 | 55.6% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 48.7% |
| No | 51.3% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 29.9% |
| 12 (either side) | 82.1% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 88.1% | |
| Handicap -1 | Riga win | 25.9% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 23.6% | |
| Loss | 50.5% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 13.5% |
| 0-1 | 11.8% | |
| 0-2 | 9.9% |
Grobiņa vs Riga stats
Grobiņa and Riga recent form
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Grobiņa and Riga season so far
Grobiņa record
- They have won 6 of their 33 league games this season, scoring 0.8 goals per match.
- They have kept 7 clean sheets in 33 matches.
- They have failed to score in 15 of 33 matches.
- They have converted 2 of 3 penalties (67%).
Riga record
- They have won 24 of their 33 league games this season, scoring 2.7 goals per match.
- They have kept 14 clean sheets in 33 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 6 matches.
- They have converted 6 of 7 penalties (86%).
- 33% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Grobiņa vs Riga head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-02 | Riga | Grobiņa | Virsliga | 4-0 |
| 2026-05-29 | Riga | Grobiņa | Virsliga | 2-0 |
| 2026-04-18 | Grobiņa | Riga | Virsliga | 0-3 |
| 2025-11-02 | Grobiņa | Riga | Virsliga | 1-1 |
| 2025-08-10 | Riga | Grobiņa | Virsliga | 2-0 |
| 2025-06-14 | Grobiņa | Riga | Virsliga | 0-2 |
| 2025-04-19 | Riga | Grobiņa | Virsliga | 3-0 |
| 2024-08-31 | Riga | Grobiņa | Virsliga | 6-1 |
| 2024-06-22 | Grobiņa | Riga | Virsliga | 0-6 |
| 2024-05-02 | Riga | Grobiņa | Virsliga | 2-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Grobiņa vs Riga odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 8.5%, draw 14.4%, away 77.0%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 11.00 | 6.25 | 1.15 |
| Bet365 | 10.00 | 6.00 | 1.18 |
| Betano | 9.25 | 5.60 | 1.21 |
| Betfair | 12.00 | 6.50 | 1.15 |
| Dafabet | 10.00 | 6.20 | 1.22 |
| Marathonbet | 11.00 | 6.25 | 1.15 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
9 snapshots recorded, from .