FK Liepaja
vs
Tukums
Garuda Lions Prediction: FK Liepaja
2 β 0 Predicted score Β· 12% model probability
FK Liepaja vs Tukums overview
Garuda Lions analysis: FK Liepaja vs Tukums
| Probability | FK Liepaja | Draw | Tukums |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 63.4% | 22.9% | 13.7% |
| Market | β | β | β |
| Final | 63.4% | 22.9% | 13.7% |
| Edge | β | β | β |
Why FK Liepaja
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.97 vs 0.81.
FK Liepaja vs Tukums match preview
FK Liepaja is favored in their upcoming match against Tukums, with a 63% probability of winning according to our model. The expected goals for FK Liepaja stand at 1.97, while Tukums is projected to score 0.81. The most likely scoreline is 2-0, occurring at a rate of 12%. Additionally, there is a 53% chance of more than 2.5 goals being scored in the match, and both teams have a nearly equal 49% probability of scoring.
In terms of recent form, FK Liepaja has recorded one win in their last six matches, with the most recent results being a loss, followed by three draws and another loss. Tukums has struggled as well, with only one win in their last six games, including three losses and two draws. The head-to-head record shows FK Liepaja with three wins, Tukums with one win, and three matches ending in a draw over the last seven encounters.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
FK Liepaja and Tukums expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.78
FK Liepaja and Tukums attack and defence ratings
FK Liepaja
Tukums
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Before and after this match
FK Liepaja vs Tukums markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | FK Liepaja | 63.4% | 1.58 | β | β |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 52.6% | 1.90 | β | β |
| Both teams to score | No | 51.1% | 1.96 | β | β |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 86.3% | 1.16 | β | β |
| Handicap -1 | FK Liepaja win | 39.5% | 2.53 | β | β |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | FK Liepaja | 63.4% |
| Draw | 22.9% | |
| Tukums | 13.7% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 52.6% |
| Under 2.5 | 47.4% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 48.9% |
| No | 51.1% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 86.3% |
| 12 (either side) | 77.1% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 36.6% | |
| Handicap -1 | FK Liepaja win | 39.5% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 23.9% | |
| Loss | 36.6% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 2-0 | 12.0% |
| 1-0 | 11.2% | |
| 1-1 | 10.9% |
FK Liepaja vs Tukums stats
FK Liepaja and Tukums recent form
| FK Liepaja |
LDDDWL |
| Tukums |
LDLWLL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
FK Liepaja and Tukums season so far
FK Liepaja record
- They have won 12 of their 32 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
- They average 1.9 goals per game at home against 0.9 on the road.
- They have kept 6 clean sheets in 32 matches.
- They have failed to score in 10 of 32 matches.
- They have converted 10 of 10 penalties (100%).
Tukums record
- They have won 5 of their 31 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- They average 1.8 goals per game at home against 1.1 on the road.
- They have failed to score in 5 of 31 matches.
FK Liepaja vs Tukums head-to-head
Last 7 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-02 | Tukums | FK Liepaja | Virsliga | 2-1 |
| 2026-05-30 | FK Liepaja | Tukums | Virsliga | 3-0 |
| 2026-04-17 | Tukums | FK Liepaja | Virsliga | 2-2 |
| 2025-09-14 | FK Liepaja | Tukums | Virsliga | 4-1 |
| 2025-06-25 | Tukums | FK Liepaja | Virsliga | 1-3 |
| 2025-05-06 | Tukums | FK Liepaja | Virsliga | 2-2 |
| 2025-03-12 | FK Liepaja | Tukums | Virsliga | 0-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.