FS Jelgava
vs
BFC Daugavpils
Garuda Lions Prediction: BFC Daugavpils
0 β 1 Predicted score Β· 13% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.27 vs 0.93.
- RiskNo edge: the market already prices this β BFC Daugavpils is the favourite, not a value bet.
FS Jelgava vs BFC Daugavpils overview
Garuda Lions analysis: FS Jelgava vs BFC Daugavpils
| Probability | FS Jelgava | Draw | BFC Daugavpils |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 25.7% | 31.2% | 43.1% |
| Market | 20.3% | 23.9% | 55.8% |
| Final | 21.7% | 25.7% | 52.6% |
| Edge | +1.4% | +1.8% | -3.2% |
Why BFC Daugavpils
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.27 vs 0.93.
- Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Best available price on the pick: 1.80, recorded β the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -5.3% per unit staked (our 52.6% Γ 1.80 β 1).
FS Jelgava vs BFC Daugavpils match preview
FS Jelgava faces BFC Daugavpils in an upcoming Virsliga match on October 25, 2026. The probabilities indicate that FS Jelgava has a 22% chance of winning, while BFC Daugavpils is favored with a 53% likelihood. The most likely scoreline predicted by the model is 0-1, occurring at a rate of 13%. Expected goals for FS Jelgava stand at 0.93, compared to BFC Daugavpils' 1.27.
Recent form shows FS Jelgava struggling with three losses, a draw, and one win in their last five matches, while BFC Daugavpils has two wins, two draws, and one loss in the same timeframe. In their last ten encounters, FS Jelgava has secured one win, with BFC Daugavpils winning six times and three matches ending in draws. The overall confidence grade for this prediction is C.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
FS Jelgava and BFC Daugavpils expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.20
FS Jelgava and BFC Daugavpils attack and defence ratings
FS Jelgava
BFC Daugavpils
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 34 fixtures
Before and after this match
FS Jelgava vs BFC Daugavpils markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | BFC Daugavpils | 52.6% | 1.90 | -3.2% | 1.80 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 62.3% | 1.61 | β | β |
| Both teams to score | No | 55.2% | 1.81 | β | β |
| Double chance | X2 (draw or away) | 78.3% | 1.28 | β | β |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 56.9% | 1.76 | β | β |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | FS Jelgava | 21.7% |
| Draw | 25.7% | |
| BFC Daugavpils | 52.6% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 37.7% |
| Under 2.5 | 62.3% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 44.8% |
| No | 55.2% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 47.4% |
| 12 (either side) | 74.3% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 78.3% | |
| Handicap -1 | BFC Daugavpils win | 20.1% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22.9% | |
| Loss | 56.9% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 14.4% |
| 0-1 | 12.8% | |
| 0-0 | 12.4% |
FS Jelgava vs BFC Daugavpils stats
FS Jelgava and BFC Daugavpils recent form
| FS Jelgava |
LLLDLW |
| BFC Daugavpils |
WWDLDL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
FS Jelgava and BFC Daugavpils season so far
FS Jelgava record
- They have won 8 of their 33 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
- They have kept 5 clean sheets in 33 matches.
- They have failed to score in 16 of 33 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 1 of 3 penalties (33%).
BFC Daugavpils record
- They have won 12 of their 33 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They have kept 9 clean sheets in 33 matches.
- They have failed to score in 10 of 33 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
- They have converted 2 of 3 penalties (67%).
- 31% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
FS Jelgava vs BFC Daugavpils head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-01 | BFC Daugavpils | FS Jelgava | Virsliga | 2-1 |
| 2026-05-31 | FS Jelgava | BFC Daugavpils | Virsliga | 1-1 |
| 2026-04-16 | BFC Daugavpils | FS Jelgava | Virsliga | 1-0 |
| 2025-10-18 | FS Jelgava | BFC Daugavpils | Virsliga | 0-0 |
| 2025-07-27 | BFC Daugavpils | FS Jelgava | Virsliga | 2-0 |
| 2025-05-25 | BFC Daugavpils | FS Jelgava | Virsliga | 1-0 |
| 2025-04-10 | FS Jelgava | BFC Daugavpils | Virsliga | 4-1 |
| 2024-09-01 | FS Jelgava | BFC Daugavpils | Virsliga | 0-0 |
| 2024-06-21 | BFC Daugavpils | FS Jelgava | Virsliga | 3-0 |
| 2024-05-03 | BFC Daugavpils | FS Jelgava | Virsliga | 1-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
FS Jelgava vs BFC Daugavpils odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 20.3%, draw 23.9%, away 55.8%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 4.56 | 3.72 | 1.61 |
| Bet365 | 3.50 | 3.70 | 1.80 |
| BetVictor | 4.80 | 3.80 | 1.62 |
| Betano | 4.35 | 3.80 | 1.62 |
| Betfair | 4.75 | 3.80 | 1.57 |
| Dafabet | 4.60 | 3.90 | 1.65 |
| Marathonbet | 4.45 | 3.72 | 1.59 |
| Pinnacle | 4.44 | 4.12 | 1.64 |
| SBO | 4.40 | 3.50 | 1.58 |
| William Hill | 4.40 | 3.75 | 1.62 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
9 snapshots recorded, from .