Ogre United
vs
Auda
Garuda Lions Prediction: Auda
1 – 2 Predicted score · 10% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.89 vs 1.14.
- RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — Auda is the favourite, not a value bet.
Ogre United vs Auda overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Ogre United vs Auda
| Probability | Ogre United | Draw | Auda |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 21.7% | 24.5% | 53.8% |
| Market | 16.4% | 20.1% | 63.5% |
| Final | 17.8% | 21.2% | 61.0% |
| Edge | +1.3% | +1.1% | -2.4% |
Why Auda
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.89 vs 1.14.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Best available price on the pick: 1.47, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -10.3% per unit staked (our 61.0% × 1.47 − 1).
Ogre United vs Auda match preview
Ogre United faces Auda in the Virsliga on October 25, 2026. The probabilities indicate a challenging match for Ogre United, with a win probability of 18% compared to Auda's 61%. Recent form shows Ogre United struggling with two losses in their last three matches, while Auda has shown more resilience, winning two of their last three fixtures.
The expected goals suggest a competitive encounter, with Ogre United at 1.14 and Auda at 1.89. The most likely scoreline predicted by the model is 1-2 in favor of Auda, with a 58% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 59% likelihood of both teams scoring. Historically, Auda has had the upper hand in their last three encounters, winning twice and drawing once against Ogre United.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Ogre United and Auda expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.02
Ogre United and Auda attack and defence ratings
Ogre United
Auda
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 34 fixtures
Before and after this match
Ogre United vs Auda markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Auda | 61.0% | 1.64 | -2.4% | 1.47 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 58.2% | 1.72 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 58.7% | 1.70 | — | — |
| Double chance | X2 (draw or away) | 82.2% | 1.22 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 46.2% | 2.16 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Ogre United | 17.8% |
| Draw | 21.2% | |
| Auda | 61.0% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 58.2% |
| Under 2.5 | 41.8% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 58.7% |
| No | 41.3% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 39.0% |
| 12 (either side) | 78.8% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 82.2% | |
| Handicap -1 | Auda win | 31.6% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22.2% | |
| Loss | 46.2% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 11.5% |
| 1-2 | 9.8% | |
| 0-2 | 8.6% |
Ogre United vs Auda stats
Ogre United and Auda recent form
| Ogre United |
LLWLDL |
| Auda |
LWDWDW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Ogre United and Auda season so far
Ogre United record
- They have won 4 of their 33 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 10 of 33 matches.
- They have converted 7 of 7 penalties (100%).
Auda record
- They have won 19 of their 33 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
- They have kept 13 clean sheets in 33 matches.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 33 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
- They have converted 4 of 5 penalties (80%).
- 44% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Ogre United vs Auda head-to-head
Last 3 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-16 | Auda | Ogre United | Virsliga | 1-0 |
| 2026-05-30 | Auda | Ogre United | Virsliga | 2-0 |
| 2026-04-17 | Ogre United | Auda | Virsliga | 1-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Ogre United vs Auda odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 16.4%, draw 20.1%, away 63.5%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 5.81 | 4.50 | 1.40 |
| Bet365 | 5.50 | 4.75 | 1.40 |
| BetVictor | 5.75 | 4.50 | 1.44 |
| Betano | 5.20 | 4.40 | 1.45 |
| Betfair | 6.00 | 4.60 | 1.36 |
| Dafabet | 5.40 | 4.60 | 1.47 |
| Marathonbet | 5.55 | 4.50 | 1.39 |
| Pinnacle | 5.39 | 4.68 | 1.47 |
| SBO | 5.13 | 4.13 | 1.41 |
| William Hill | 5.50 | 4.20 | 1.44 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
9 snapshots recorded, from .