FK Liepaja
vs
FS Jelgava
Garuda Lions Prediction: FK Liepaja
2 – 1 Predicted score · 9% model probability
FK Liepaja vs FS Jelgava overview
Garuda Lions analysis: FK Liepaja vs FS Jelgava
| Probability | FK Liepaja | Draw | FS Jelgava |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 48.0% | 27.1% | 24.9% |
| Market | 54.8% | 24.0% | 21.2% |
| Final | 53.1% | 24.8% | 22.1% |
| Edge | -6.8% | +3.1% | +3.7% |
Why FK Liepaja
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.62 vs 1.11.
Best available price on the pick: 1.70, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update.
FK Liepaja vs FS Jelgava match preview
FK Liepaja faces FS Jelgava in the Virsliga with FK Liepaja holding a 43% probability of winning, while FS Jelgava stands at 30% and a draw is at 27%. The most likely scoreline predicted by the model is 2-1 in favor of FK Liepaja, with a 9% likelihood. The expected goals for FK Liepaja is 1.61, compared to FS Jelgava's 1.11, indicating a slight advantage for the home side.
In terms of recent form, FK Liepaja has recorded one win in their last six matches (L-D-D-D-W-L), while FS Jelgava has two wins in their last six (L-L-D-L-W-W). Historically, FK Liepaja has been dominant in their recent encounters, winning four of the last seven matchups, with FS Jelgava yet to secure a victory in that span. The confidence grade for this match is C.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
FK Liepaja and FS Jelgava expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.72
FK Liepaja and FS Jelgava attack and defence ratings
FK Liepaja
FS Jelgava
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 33 fixtures
Before and after this match
FK Liepaja vs FS Jelgava markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | FK Liepaja | 53.1% | 1.88 | -6.8% | 1.70 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 51.2% | 1.95 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 54.8% | 1.83 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 77.9% | 1.28 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 52.0% | 1.92 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | FK Liepaja | 53.1% |
| Draw | 24.8% | |
| FS Jelgava | 22.1% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 51.2% |
| Under 2.5 | 48.8% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 54.8% |
| No | 45.2% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 77.9% |
| 12 (either side) | 75.2% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 46.9% | |
| Handicap -1 | FK Liepaja win | 25.8% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22.2% | |
| Loss | 52.0% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 12.9% |
| 2-1 | 9.5% | |
| 1-0 | 9.5% |
FK Liepaja vs FS Jelgava stats
FK Liepaja and FS Jelgava recent form
| FK Liepaja |
LDDDWL |
| FS Jelgava |
LLDLWW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
FK Liepaja and FS Jelgava season so far
FK Liepaja record
- They have won 12 of their 32 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
- They average 1.9 goals per game at home against 0.9 on the road.
- They have kept 6 clean sheets in 32 matches.
- They have failed to score in 10 of 32 matches.
- They have converted 10 of 10 penalties (100%).
FS Jelgava record
- They have won 8 of their 32 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They average 1.3 goals per game on the road against 0.8 at home.
- They have kept 5 clean sheets in 32 matches.
- They have failed to score in 15 of 32 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 1 of 3 penalties (33%).
FK Liepaja vs FS Jelgava head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-26 | FS Jelgava | FK Liepaja | Virsliga | 0-2 |
| 2026-05-26 | FS Jelgava | FK Liepaja | Virsliga | 1-1 |
| 2026-04-12 | FK Liepaja | FS Jelgava | Virsliga | 1-1 |
| 2026-02-27 | FK Liepaja | FS Jelgava | Friendlies Clubs | 2-1 |
| 2025-10-25 | FK Liepaja | FS Jelgava | Virsliga | 2-2 |
| 2025-08-02 | FS Jelgava | FK Liepaja | Virsliga | 1-2 |
| 2025-05-30 | FS Jelgava | FK Liepaja | Virsliga | 0-1 |
| 2025-04-14 | FK Liepaja | FS Jelgava | Virsliga | 1-0 |
| 2024-11-03 | FS Jelgava | FK Liepaja | Virsliga | 2-2 |
| 2024-08-10 | FK Liepaja | FS Jelgava | Virsliga | 3-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
FK Liepaja vs FS Jelgava odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 54.1%, draw 24.2%, away 21.8%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.64 | 3.74 | 4.36 |
| Bet365 | 1.67 | 3.70 | 4.00 |
| Betano | 1.70 | 3.65 | 4.00 |
| Betfair | 1.67 | 3.80 | 4.20 |
| Dafabet | 1.69 | 3.75 | 4.10 |
| Marathonbet | 1.62 | 3.74 | 4.25 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
11 snapshots recorded, from .