Rīgas FS
vs
FS Jelgava
Garuda Lions Prediction: Rīgas FS
1 – 0 Predicted score · 13% model probability
Rīgas FS vs FS Jelgava overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Rīgas FS vs FS Jelgava
| Probability | Rīgas FS | Draw | FS Jelgava |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 57.2% | 26.2% | 16.6% |
| Market | 75.2% | 16.6% | 8.2% |
| Final | 70.7% | 19.0% | 10.3% |
| Edge | -18.0% | +9.6% | +8.4% |
Why Rīgas FS
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.69 vs 0.81.
Best available price on the pick: 1.26, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update.
Rīgas FS vs FS Jelgava match preview
Rīgas FS enters the match against FS Jelgava with a 57% probability of winning, while the draw stands at 26% and FS Jelgava at 17%. The expected goals indicate a strong performance from Rīgas FS at 1.69 compared to FS Jelgava's 0.81. The most likely scoreline is 1-0, with a probability of 13%.
In terms of recent form, Rīgas FS has recorded two draws, two wins, and one loss in their last five matches, while FS Jelgava has experienced two losses, one draw, and two wins in the same timeframe. Historically, Rīgas FS has dominated their head-to-head encounters, winning five of the last seven matches against FS Jelgava, who have only managed one win.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Rīgas FS and FS Jelgava expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.49
Rīgas FS and FS Jelgava attack and defence ratings
Rīgas FS
FS Jelgava
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 32 fixtures
Before and after this match
Rīgas FS vs FS Jelgava markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Rīgas FS | 70.7% | 1.41 | -18.0% | 1.26 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 54.5% | 1.83 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 53.8% | 1.86 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 89.7% | 1.11 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 42.8% | 2.34 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Rīgas FS | 70.7% |
| Draw | 19.0% | |
| FS Jelgava | 10.3% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 45.5% |
| Under 2.5 | 54.5% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 46.2% |
| No | 53.8% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 89.7% |
| 12 (either side) | 81.0% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 29.3% | |
| Handicap -1 | Rīgas FS win | 32.5% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 24.7% | |
| Loss | 42.8% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-0 | 12.8% |
| 1-1 | 12.4% | |
| 2-0 | 11.8% |
Rīgas FS vs FS Jelgava stats
Rīgas FS and FS Jelgava recent form
| Rīgas FS |
DWDWDL |
| FS Jelgava |
LDLWWL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Rīgas FS and FS Jelgava season so far
Rīgas FS record
- They have won 23 of their 29 league games this season, scoring 2.4 goals per match.
- They average 3.0 goals per game at home against 1.9 on the road.
- They have kept 15 clean sheets in 29 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 8 matches.
- They have converted 9 of 10 penalties (90%).
FS Jelgava record
- They have won 8 of their 30 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They have kept 5 clean sheets in 30 matches.
- They have failed to score in 14 of 30 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 1 of 3 penalties (33%).
Rīgas FS vs FS Jelgava head-to-head
Last 7 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-20 | FS Jelgava | Rīgas FS | Virsliga | 0-1 |
| 2026-05-21 | Rīgas FS | FS Jelgava | Virsliga | 4-0 |
| 2026-04-08 | FS Jelgava | Rīgas FS | Virsliga | 0-1 |
| 2025-09-13 | Rīgas FS | FS Jelgava | Virsliga | 1-4 |
| 2025-06-26 | FS Jelgava | Rīgas FS | Virsliga | 0-1 |
| 2025-05-05 | FS Jelgava | Rīgas FS | Virsliga | 2-2 |
| 2025-03-11 | Rīgas FS | FS Jelgava | Virsliga | 1-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Rīgas FS vs FS Jelgava odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 75.2%, draw 16.6%, away 8.2%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.19 | 5.40 | 12.30 |
| Bet365 | 1.20 | 6.00 | 11.00 |
| Betano | 1.26 | 5.00 | 8.75 |
| Betfair | 1.15 | 6.00 | 11.00 |
| Dafabet | 1.23 | 5.40 | 9.80 |
| Marathonbet | 1.18 | 5.40 | 11.50 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
10 snapshots recorded, from .