Virsliga · Full time ·Matchday 32

Rīgas FS vs FS Jelgava

4 – 2 Full time

28′F. Hasek
33′G. Zaleiko
45′G. Patika
46′A. KouadioD. Lemajic
47′F. Hasek
55′D. Lemajic
56′M. SaidyM. Kigurs
62′A. Kangars
62′S. Panic
64′D. Lemajic
69′G. PatikaA. Deklavs
74′A. Filipovic
77′R. BecersR. Melkis
77′E. SmaukstelisM. Pudil
80′S. Panic
81′R. Ndjiki
85′L. OdishariaA. Balde
85′G. ZaleikoK. Bernans
85′K. AlekseiciksG. Kacanovs
90′J. IkaunieksN. Dusalijevs
90′R. NdjikiD. Korac

Bislett Stadium, OsloReferee: V. Spasjonnikovs

Rīgas FS 76%
Draw 16%
FS Jelgava 8%

Confidence: Low  ·  blended with market odds

Rīgas FS vs FS Jelgava overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Rīgas FS vs FS Jelgava

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityRīgas FSDrawFS Jelgava
Model57.1%26.2%16.6%
Market82.0%12.2%5.7%
Final75.8%15.7%8.5%
Edge-6.2%+3.5%+2.7%

Confidence: Low · Edge = Final minus Market

Why Rīgas FS

  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.68 vs 0.81.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Rīgas FS ↓ / FS Jelgava → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 9% 1 13% 12% 2 12% 9% 3 7% 4+

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 91%
2+ goals 72%
3+ goals 45%
No goals 9%

Rīgas FS and FS Jelgava expected goals

Rīgas FS 1.68
FS Jelgava 0.81

Total expected goals: 2.49

Rīgas FS and FS Jelgava attack and defence ratings

Rīgas FS

Attack 1.20 +20%
Defence 0.76 -24%

FS Jelgava

Attack 0.84 -16%
Defence 0.86 -14%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Rīgas FS vs FS Jelgava: result vs prediction

Rīgas FS 4 – 2 FS Jelgava

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✓ Correct
Over/Under 2.5 pick✗ Incorrect
BTTS pick✗ Incorrect

Other Matchday 32 fixtures

Virsliga

Before and after this match

Rīgas FS vs FS Jelgava markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 Rīgas FS 75.8% 1.32 -6.2% —
Over/Under 2.5 Under 2.5 54.6% 1.83 — —
Both teams to score No 53.7% 1.86 — —
Double chance 1X (home or draw) 91.5% 1.09 — —
Handicap -1 Loss 42.9% 2.33 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2Rīgas FS75.8%
Draw15.7%
FS Jelgava8.5%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.545.4%
Under 2.554.6%
Both teams to scoreYes46.3%
No53.7%
Double chance1X (home or draw)91.5%
12 (either side)84.3%
X2 (draw or away)24.2%
Handicap -1Rīgas FS win32.4%
Push (exactly one goal)24.7%
Loss42.9%
Correct score (top 3)1-012.8%
1-112.4%
2-011.7%

Rīgas FS vs FS Jelgava stats

Rīgas FS and FS Jelgava recent form

newest first
Rīgas FS DWDWDL
FS Jelgava LDLWWL

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

Rīgas FS and FS Jelgava going into this match

league record before kick-off

Rīgas FS record

  • They have won 23 of their 30 league games this season, scoring 2.4 goals per match.
  • They average 3.0 goals per game at home against 1.8 on the road.
  • They have kept 15 clean sheets in 30 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 8 matches.
  • They have converted 9 of 10 penalties (90%).

FS Jelgava record

  • They have won 8 of their 31 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
  • They have kept 5 clean sheets in 31 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 15 of 31 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
  • They have converted 1 of 3 penalties (33%).

Rīgas FS vs FS Jelgava head-to-head

Last 10 meetings

8Rīgas FS wins 1Draws 1FS Jelgava wins
DateHomeAwayCompetitionScore
2026-07-20FS JelgavaRīgas FSVirsliga0-1
2026-07-12Rīgas FSFS JelgavaCup2-0
2026-05-21Rīgas FSFS JelgavaVirsliga4-0
2026-04-08FS JelgavaRīgas FSVirsliga0-1
2025-09-13Rīgas FSFS JelgavaVirsliga1-4
2025-07-12FS JelgavaRīgas FSCup0-1
2025-06-26FS JelgavaRīgas FSVirsliga0-1
2025-05-05FS JelgavaRīgas FSVirsliga2-2
2025-03-11Rīgas FSFS JelgavaVirsliga1-0
2024-09-30FS JelgavaRīgas FSVirsliga0-2

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

Rīgas FS vs FS Jelgava odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 82.0%, draw 12.2%, away 5.7%.

Bookmaker1X2
1xBet 1.09 6.75 16.50
Bet365 1.12 7.50 17.00
BetVictor 1.11 8.00 17.00
Betano 1.14 6.40 13.00
Betfair 1.08 8.00 15.00
Dafabet 1.12 8.00 16.00
Marathonbet 1.09 6.75 16.50
Pinnacle 1.14 7.87 14.85
William Hill 1.14 7.00 15.00

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 1.12 ▼ -0.02
X 7.50 ▲ +0.90
2 16.00 ▲ +2.00

13 snapshots recorded, from .