Rīgas FS
vs
Super Nova
4 – 0 Full time
| 9′ | Z. Lipuscek | ||
| 12′ | A. Balde | ||
| 29′ | D. ZelenkovsR. Savalnieks | ||
| 45′ | R. Kirss | ||
| 45′ | J. Ikaunieks | ||
| 46′ | H. PrengaS. Kumater | ||
| 46′ | J. CirulisA. Glaudans | ||
| 46′ | R. KirssR. Iida | ||
| 57′ | L. OdishariaM. Kigurs | ||
| 65′ | BambaK. Augusts | ||
| 65′ | I. PatrikejevsE. Emsis | ||
| 77′ | A. BaldeD. Korac | ||
| 77′ | R. SitjakovsA. Baghdasaryan | ||
| 77′ | D. LemajicA. Kouadio | ||
| 79′ | S. Kumater | ||
| 86′ | D. Korac |
Rīgas FS vs Super Nova overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Rīgas FS vs Super Nova
| Probability | Rīgas FS | Draw | Super Nova |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 59.2% | 26.0% | 14.9% |
| Market | 82.9% | 11.4% | 5.7% |
| Final | 77.0% | 15.0% | 8.0% |
| Edge | -5.9% | +3.6% | +2.3% |
Why Rīgas FS
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.69 vs 0.74.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Rīgas FS and Super Nova expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.42
Rīgas FS and Super Nova attack and defence ratings
Rīgas FS
Super Nova
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Rīgas FS vs Super Nova: result vs prediction
Rīgas FS 4 – 0 Super Nova
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✓ Correct |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| BTTS pick | ✓ Correct |
Other Matchday 25 fixtures
Before and after this match
Rīgas FS vs Super Nova markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Rīgas FS | 77.0% | 1.30 | -5.9% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 56.3% | 1.78 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 56.5% | 1.77 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 92.0% | 1.09 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 40.8% | 2.45 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Rīgas FS | 77.0% |
| Draw | 15.0% | |
| Super Nova | 8.0% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 43.7% |
| Under 2.5 | 56.3% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 43.5% |
| No | 56.5% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 92.0% |
| 12 (either side) | 85.0% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 23.0% | |
| Handicap -1 | Rīgas FS win | 33.9% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 25.3% | |
| Loss | 40.8% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-0 | 13.9% |
| 2-0 | 12.6% | |
| 1-1 | 12.1% |
Rīgas FS vs Super Nova stats
Rīgas FS and Super Nova recent form
| Rīgas FS |
WDWDWD |
| Super Nova |
WLLWWD |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Rīgas FS and Super Nova going into this match
Rīgas FS record
- They have won 24 of their 31 league games this season, scoring 2.4 goals per match.
- They average 3.1 goals per game at home against 1.8 on the road.
- They have kept 15 clean sheets in 31 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 8 matches.
- They have converted 10 of 11 penalties (91%).
Super Nova record
- They have won 11 of their 31 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
- They have kept 8 clean sheets in 31 matches.
- They have failed to score in 8 of 31 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 5 of 5 penalties (100%).
- 34% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Rīgas FS vs Super Nova head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-16 | Super Nova | Rīgas FS | Cup | 0-1 |
| 2026-05-29 | Super Nova | Rīgas FS | Virsliga | 1-2 |
| 2026-04-18 | Rīgas FS | Super Nova | Virsliga | 2-0 |
| 2026-01-14 | Rīgas FS | Super Nova | Friendlies Clubs | 5-2 |
| 2025-11-02 | Super Nova | Rīgas FS | Virsliga | 1-3 |
| 2025-08-10 | Rīgas FS | Super Nova | Virsliga | 4-1 |
| 2025-06-14 | Rīgas FS | Super Nova | Virsliga | 2-1 |
| 2025-04-20 | Super Nova | Rīgas FS | Virsliga | 1-2 |
| 2025-01-11 | Rīgas FS | Super Nova | Friendlies Clubs | 7-0 |
| 2023-11-05 | Super Nova | Rīgas FS | Virsliga | 0-4 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Rīgas FS vs Super Nova odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 82.9%, draw 11.4%, away 5.7%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.07 | 8.00 | 15.50 |
| Bet365 | 1.14 | 7.50 | 13.00 |
| BetVictor | 1.09 | 8.50 | 19.00 |
| Betano | 1.13 | 6.70 | 12.50 |
| Betfair | 1.08 | 8.50 | 16.00 |
| Dafabet | 1.10 | 8.60 | 18.00 |
| Marathonbet | 1.07 | 8.00 | 15.75 |
| Pinnacle | 1.11 | 9.09 | 16.12 |
| William Hill | 1.12 | 7.50 | 17.00 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
8 snapshots recorded, from .