Rīgas FS
vs
Super Nova
Garuda Lions Prediction: Rīgas FS
1 – 0 Predicted score · 17% model probability
Rīgas FS vs Super Nova overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Rīgas FS vs Super Nova
| Probability | Rīgas FS | Draw | Super Nova |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 59.1% | 27.6% | 13.2% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Final | 59.1% | 27.6% | 13.2% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Why Rīgas FS
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.54 vs 0.60.
Rīgas FS vs Super Nova match preview
Rīgas FS faces Super Nova in their upcoming Virsliga match on October 15, 2026. According to our model, Rīgas FS has a 59% probability of winning, while Super Nova stands at 13%. The expected goals for Rīgas FS is 1.54, compared to Super Nova's 0.60, indicating a significant advantage for the home side. The most likely scoreline predicted is 1-0, which has a 17% probability.
In terms of recent form, Rīgas FS has recorded a series of mixed results with their last six games showing D-W-D-W-D-L. Conversely, Super Nova's recent performances have been less consistent, with two wins and four games without a victory in their last six. Historically, Rīgas FS has dominated this matchup, winning all six of their last encounters against Super Nova.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Rīgas FS and Super Nova expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.13
Rīgas FS and Super Nova attack and defence ratings
Rīgas FS
Super Nova
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 25 fixtures
Before and after this match
Rīgas FS vs Super Nova markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Rīgas FS | 59.1% | 1.69 | — | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 64.0% | 1.56 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 63.6% | 1.57 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 86.8% | 1.15 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 40.9% | 2.45 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Rīgas FS | 59.1% |
| Draw | 27.6% | |
| Super Nova | 13.2% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 36.0% |
| Under 2.5 | 64.0% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 36.4% |
| No | 63.6% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 86.8% |
| 12 (either side) | 72.4% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 40.9% | |
| Handicap -1 | Rīgas FS win | 32.3% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 26.8% | |
| Loss | 40.9% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-0 | 17.1% |
| 2-0 | 14.0% | |
| 0-0 | 12.9% |
Rīgas FS vs Super Nova stats
Rīgas FS and Super Nova recent form
| Rīgas FS |
DWDWDL |
| Super Nova |
LLWWDD |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Rīgas FS and Super Nova season so far
Rīgas FS record
- They have won 23 of their 29 league games this season, scoring 2.4 goals per match.
- They average 3.0 goals per game at home against 1.9 on the road.
- They have kept 15 clean sheets in 29 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 8 matches.
- They have converted 9 of 10 penalties (90%).
Super Nova record
- They have won 10 of their 30 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
- They have kept 8 clean sheets in 30 matches.
- They have failed to score in 8 of 30 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 5 of 5 penalties (100%).
- 34% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Rīgas FS vs Super Nova head-to-head
Last 6 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-29 | Super Nova | Rīgas FS | Virsliga | 1-2 |
| 2026-04-18 | Rīgas FS | Super Nova | Virsliga | 2-0 |
| 2025-11-02 | Super Nova | Rīgas FS | Virsliga | 1-3 |
| 2025-08-10 | Rīgas FS | Super Nova | Virsliga | 4-1 |
| 2025-06-14 | Rīgas FS | Super Nova | Virsliga | 2-1 |
| 2025-04-20 | Super Nova | Rīgas FS | Virsliga | 1-2 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.