Super Nova
vs
Grobiņa
2 – 1 Full time
| 4′ | I. Tyshchenko | ||
| 6′ | M. Oss | ||
| 10′ | I. Tyshchenko | ||
| 10′ | I. Tyshchenko | ||
| 19′ | K. Romanovs | ||
| 20′ | H. YamadaJ. Ribeiro | ||
| 29′ | M. Corryn | ||
| 33′ | M. Oss | ||
| 46′ | A. KholodDodo | ||
| 46′ | A. BaydalO. Olatunde-Matthew | ||
| 65′ | BambaA. Glaudans | ||
| 65′ | R. KirssN. Pathe | ||
| 74′ | I. PatrikejevsM. Tihonovics | ||
| 79′ | M. CorrynM. Sidorovs | ||
| 85′ | R. Sitjakovs | ||
| 87′ | J. RibeiroA. Puzirevskis | ||
| 89′ | V. Lizunovs | ||
| 90′ | E. EmsisK. Skadmanis | ||
| 90′ | V. LizunovsI. Ndiaye |
Super Nova vs Grobiņa overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Super Nova vs Grobiņa
| Probability | Super Nova | Draw | Grobiņa |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 47.3% | 34.2% | 18.5% |
| Market | 38.9% | 29.3% | 31.8% |
| Final | 41.0% | 30.6% | 28.5% |
| Edge | +2.1% | +1.2% | -3.3% |
Why Super Nova
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.13 vs 0.61.
- Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
- The market prices Super Nova below our published probability: +2.1 percentage points of edge.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Super Nova and Grobiņa expected goals
Total expected goals: 1.75
Super Nova and Grobiņa attack and defence ratings
Super Nova
Grobiņa
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Super Nova vs Grobiņa: result vs prediction
Super Nova 2 – 1 Grobiņa
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✓ Correct |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| BTTS pick | ✗ Incorrect |
Other Matchday 32 fixtures
Before and after this match
Super Nova vs Grobiņa markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Super Nova | 41.0% | 2.44 | +2.1% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 74.5% | 1.34 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 67.8% | 1.48 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 71.5% | 1.40 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 52.8% | 1.89 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Super Nova | 41.0% |
| Draw | 30.6% | |
| Grobiņa | 28.5% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 25.5% |
| Under 2.5 | 74.5% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 32.2% |
| No | 67.8% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 71.5% |
| 12 (either side) | 69.4% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 59.0% | |
| Handicap -1 | Super Nova win | 20.9% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 26.3% | |
| Loss | 52.8% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 0-0 | 18.6% |
| 1-0 | 18.6% | |
| 1-1 | 13.3% |
Super Nova vs Grobiņa stats
Super Nova and Grobiņa recent form
| Super Nova |
LLWWDD |
| Grobiņa |
DDLWLL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Super Nova and Grobiņa going into this match
Super Nova record
- They have won 10 of their 30 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
- They have kept 8 clean sheets in 30 matches.
- They have failed to score in 8 of 30 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 5 of 5 penalties (100%).
- 34% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Grobiņa record
- They have won 5 of their 31 league games this season, scoring 0.7 goals per match.
- They have kept 7 clean sheets in 31 matches.
- They have failed to score in 15 of 31 matches.
Super Nova vs Grobiņa head-to-head
Last 8 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-20 | Super Nova | Grobiņa | Virsliga | 2-0 |
| 2026-05-20 | Grobiņa | Super Nova | Virsliga | 0-2 |
| 2026-04-09 | Grobiņa | Super Nova | Virsliga | 0-1 |
| 2025-10-18 | Grobiņa | Super Nova | Virsliga | 0-0 |
| 2025-07-26 | Super Nova | Grobiņa | Virsliga | 0-0 |
| 2025-05-26 | Grobiņa | Super Nova | Virsliga | 1-1 |
| 2025-04-10 | Super Nova | Grobiņa | Virsliga | 1-1 |
| 2021-08-29 | Super Nova | Grobiņa | 1. Liga | 2-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Super Nova vs Grobiņa odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 38.9%, draw 29.3%, away 31.8%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.34 | 3.02 | 2.86 |
| Bet365 | 2.30 | 3.20 | 2.70 |
| BetVictor | 2.38 | 3.13 | 2.90 |
| Betano | 2.27 | 3.10 | 2.85 |
| Betfair | 2.38 | 3.10 | 2.75 |
| Dafabet | 2.32 | 3.25 | 2.95 |
| Marathonbet | 2.32 | 3.02 | 2.78 |
| Pinnacle | 2.40 | 3.09 | 2.96 |
| William Hill | 2.38 | 2.90 | 2.90 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
13 snapshots recorded, from .