Super Nova
vs
Grobiņa
Garuda Lions Prediction: Super Nova
1 – 0 Predicted score · 19% model probability
Super Nova vs Grobiņa overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Super Nova vs Grobiņa
| Probability | Super Nova | Draw | Grobiņa |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 47.3% | 34.2% | 18.5% |
| Market | 37.4% | 27.6% | 35.0% |
| Final | 39.8% | 29.2% | 30.9% |
| Edge | +9.9% | +6.6% | -16.5% |
Why Super Nova
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.14 vs 0.61.
- Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
- The market prices Super Nova below the model: +9.9 percentage points of edge.
Best available price on the pick: 2.50, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update.
Super Nova vs Grobiņa match preview
Super Nova will face Grobiņa in the Virsliga on October 10, 2026. The model indicates a 47% probability of a Super Nova victory, while a draw stands at 34% and Grobiņa at 19%. The most likely scoreline is 1-0 in favor of Super Nova, with a 19% probability. Expected goals are 1.14 for Super Nova and 0.61 for Grobiņa, suggesting a stronger offensive performance from the home side.
In terms of recent form, Super Nova has recorded two draws, one win, and two losses in their last five matches, while Grobiņa has managed two draws, one win, and three losses. Historically, in their last seven encounters, Super Nova has won three times, while Grobiņa has yet to secure a victory, with four matches ending in draws.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Super Nova and Grobiņa expected goals
Total expected goals: 1.75
Super Nova and Grobiņa attack and defence ratings
Super Nova
Grobiņa
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 32 fixtures
Before and after this match
Super Nova vs Grobiņa markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Super Nova | 39.8% | 2.51 | +9.9% | 2.50 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 74.5% | 1.34 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 67.8% | 1.48 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 70.8% | 1.41 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 52.7% | 1.90 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Super Nova | 39.8% |
| Draw | 29.2% | |
| Grobiņa | 30.9% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 25.5% |
| Under 2.5 | 74.5% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 32.2% |
| No | 67.8% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 69.1% |
| 12 (either side) | 70.8% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 60.2% | |
| Handicap -1 | Super Nova win | 20.9% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 26.3% | |
| Loss | 52.7% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 0-0 | 18.6% |
| 1-0 | 18.6% | |
| 1-1 | 13.3% |
Super Nova vs Grobiņa stats
Super Nova and Grobiņa recent form
| Super Nova |
LLWWDD |
| Grobiņa |
DDLWLL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Super Nova and Grobiņa season so far
Super Nova record
- They have won 10 of their 30 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
- They have kept 8 clean sheets in 30 matches.
- They have failed to score in 8 of 30 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 5 of 5 penalties (100%).
- 34% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Grobiņa record
- They have won 5 of their 31 league games this season, scoring 0.7 goals per match.
- They have kept 7 clean sheets in 31 matches.
- They have failed to score in 15 of 31 matches.
Super Nova vs Grobiņa head-to-head
Last 8 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-20 | Super Nova | Grobiņa | Virsliga | 2-0 |
| 2026-05-20 | Grobiņa | Super Nova | Virsliga | 0-2 |
| 2026-04-09 | Grobiņa | Super Nova | Virsliga | 0-1 |
| 2025-10-18 | Grobiņa | Super Nova | Virsliga | 0-0 |
| 2025-07-26 | Super Nova | Grobiņa | Virsliga | 0-0 |
| 2025-05-26 | Grobiņa | Super Nova | Virsliga | 1-1 |
| 2025-04-10 | Super Nova | Grobiņa | Virsliga | 1-1 |
| 2021-08-29 | Super Nova | Grobiņa | 1. Liga | 2-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Super Nova vs Grobiņa odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 37.4%, draw 27.6%, away 35.0%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.39 | 3.20 | 2.56 |
| Bet365 | 2.40 | 3.25 | 2.55 |
| Betano | 2.37 | 3.30 | 2.62 |
| Betfair | 2.50 | 3.30 | 2.55 |
| Dafabet | 2.42 | 3.40 | 2.70 |
| Marathonbet | 2.39 | 3.20 | 2.56 |
| William Hill | 2.45 | 3.00 | 2.62 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
12 snapshots recorded, from .