FK Liepaja
vs
Auda
Garuda Lions Prediction: Auda
0 – 1 Predicted score · 11% model probability
FK Liepaja vs Auda overview
Garuda Lions analysis: FK Liepaja vs Auda
| Probability | FK Liepaja | Draw | Auda |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 35.0% | 32.9% | 32.1% |
| Market | 34.8% | 25.9% | 39.3% |
| Final | 34.9% | 27.6% | 37.5% |
| Edge | +0.2% | +6.9% | -7.1% |
Why Auda
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
Best available price on the pick: 2.37, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update.
FK Liepaja vs Auda match preview
In the upcoming Virsliga match, FK Liepaja will host Auda. The model indicates a close contest, with Auda slightly favored at 37% to win, compared to FK Liepaja's 35% and a 28% chance of a draw. The most likely scoreline is 0-1, occurring with an 11% probability, while both teams have a 43% chance of scoring. Expected goals are marginally in favor of FK Liepaja at 1.07 compared to Auda's 1.01.
Recent form shows FK Liepaja with three draws and two wins in their last five matches, while Auda has been more consistent, registering three wins and two draws. In their last ten encounters, Auda has a stronger head-to-head record with six wins to FK Liepaja's three and one draw. The confidence grade for this match is C, reflecting a blend of probabilities and market odds.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
FK Liepaja and Auda expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.07
FK Liepaja and Auda attack and defence ratings
FK Liepaja
Auda
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 32 fixtures
Before and after this match
FK Liepaja vs Auda markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Auda | 37.5% | 2.67 | -7.1% | 2.37 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 65.6% | 1.52 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 57.0% | 1.75 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 72.4% | 1.38 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 67.9% | 1.47 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | FK Liepaja | 34.9% |
| Draw | 27.6% | |
| Auda | 37.5% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 34.4% |
| Under 2.5 | 65.6% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 43.0% |
| No | 57.0% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 62.5% |
| 12 (either side) | 72.4% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 65.1% | |
| Handicap -1 | Auda win | 12.6% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 19.5% | |
| Loss | 67.9% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 14.9% |
| 0-0 | 13.9% | |
| 1-0 | 12.0% |
FK Liepaja vs Auda stats
FK Liepaja and Auda recent form
| FK Liepaja |
DDDWLW |
| Auda |
DWDWDW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
FK Liepaja and Auda season so far
FK Liepaja record
- They have won 12 of their 30 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- They average 2.0 goals per game at home against 0.9 on the road.
- They have kept 5 clean sheets in 30 matches.
- They have failed to score in 9 of 30 matches.
- They have converted 10 of 10 penalties (100%).
- 30% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Auda record
- They have won 18 of their 30 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
- They have kept 13 clean sheets in 30 matches.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 30 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 4 penalties (75%).
- 44% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
FK Liepaja vs Auda head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-25 | Auda | FK Liepaja | Virsliga | 1-0 |
| 2026-07-11 | Auda | FK Liepaja | Cup | 1-0 |
| 2026-05-22 | Auda | FK Liepaja | Virsliga | 3-1 |
| 2026-04-08 | FK Liepaja | Auda | Virsliga | 1-2 |
| 2025-10-20 | Auda | FK Liepaja | Virsliga | 1-2 |
| 2025-07-27 | FK Liepaja | Auda | Virsliga | 2-0 |
| 2025-05-24 | FK Liepaja | Auda | Virsliga | 0-0 |
| 2025-04-09 | Auda | FK Liepaja | Virsliga | 3-0 |
| 2024-10-05 | FK Liepaja | Auda | Virsliga | 2-1 |
| 2024-09-25 | Auda | FK Liepaja | Cup | 3-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
FK Liepaja vs Auda odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 34.8%, draw 25.9%, away 39.3%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.56 | 3.44 | 2.27 |
| Bet365 | 2.62 | 3.60 | 2.25 |
| Betano | 2.55 | 3.40 | 2.37 |
| Betfair | 2.63 | 3.40 | 2.30 |
| Marathonbet | 2.56 | 3.44 | 2.27 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
8 snapshots recorded, from .