BFC Daugavpils
vs
Tukums
Garuda Lions Prediction: BFC Daugavpils
1 β 0 Predicted score Β· 20% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.62 vs 0.44.
- RiskNo bookmaker prices recorded yet, so this pick has not been checked against the market.
BFC Daugavpils vs Tukums overview
Garuda Lions analysis: BFC Daugavpils vs Tukums
| Probability | BFC Daugavpils | Draw | Tukums |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 65.9% | 25.4% | 8.7% |
| Market | β | β | β |
| Final | 65.9% | 25.4% | 8.7% |
| Edge | β | β | β |
Why BFC Daugavpils
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.62 vs 0.44.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
BFC Daugavpils vs Tukums match preview
BFC Daugavpils enters the match with a strong probability of winning at 66%, while Tukums has a significantly lower chance at 9%. The expected goals for BFC Daugavpils stand at 1.62, compared to Tukums' 0.44, indicating a potential advantage in offensive output. Recent form shows BFC Daugavpils with three wins in their last five matches, while Tukums has struggled, recording only one win in their last five.
The most likely scoreline predicted by our model is 1-0 in favor of BFC Daugavpils, with a 20% probability. The likelihood of over 2.5 goals is at 34%, and both teams scoring is estimated at 29%. In their last seven encounters, BFC Daugavpils has secured three wins, while Tukums has one win and three draws.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
BFC Daugavpils and Tukums expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.06
BFC Daugavpils and Tukums attack and defence ratings
BFC Daugavpils
Tukums
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 35 fixtures
Before and after this match
BFC Daugavpils vs Tukums markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | BFC Daugavpils | 65.9% | 1.52 | β | β |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 66.1% | 1.51 | β | β |
| Both teams to score | No | 70.6% | 1.42 | β | β |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 91.3% | 1.10 | β | β |
| Handicap -1 | BFC Daugavpils win | 37.8% | 2.64 | β | β |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | BFC Daugavpils | 65.9% |
| Draw | 25.4% | |
| Tukums | 8.7% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 33.9% |
| Under 2.5 | 66.1% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 29.4% |
| No | 70.6% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 91.3% |
| 12 (either side) | 74.6% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 34.1% | |
| Handicap -1 | BFC Daugavpils win | 37.8% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 28.0% | |
| Loss | 34.1% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-0 | 19.8% |
| 2-0 | 16.7% | |
| 0-0 | 13.7% |
BFC Daugavpils vs Tukums stats
BFC Daugavpils and Tukums recent form
| BFC Daugavpils |
WWWDLD |
| Tukums |
DLLDLW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
BFC Daugavpils and Tukums season so far
BFC Daugavpils record
- They have won 12 of their 33 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They have kept 9 clean sheets in 33 matches.
- They have failed to score in 10 of 33 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
- They have converted 2 of 3 penalties (67%).
- 31% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Tukums record
- They have won 5 of their 33 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
- They average 1.6 goals per game at home against 1.0 on the road.
- They have failed to score in 7 of 33 matches.
BFC Daugavpils vs Tukums head-to-head
Last 7 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-08 | BFC Daugavpils | Tukums | Virsliga | 2-0 |
| 2026-06-12 | Tukums | BFC Daugavpils | Virsliga | 1-1 |
| 2026-04-21 | Tukums | BFC Daugavpils | Virsliga | 1-1 |
| 2025-08-30 | Tukums | BFC Daugavpils | Virsliga | 0-1 |
| 2025-06-21 | BFC Daugavpils | Tukums | Virsliga | 1-2 |
| 2025-04-30 | Tukums | BFC Daugavpils | Virsliga | 0-0 |
| 2025-03-07 | BFC Daugavpils | Tukums | Virsliga | 3-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.