Tavernes
vs
Valencia
Garuda Lions Prediction: Valencia
0 – 1 Predicted score · 13% model probability
- WhyBetter recent form: 1 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
- RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — Valencia is the favourite, not a value bet.
Tavernes vs Valencia overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Tavernes vs Valencia
| Probability | Tavernes | Draw | Valencia |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 27.5% | 31.8% | 40.7% |
| Market | 1.4% | 3.7% | 94.9% |
| Final | 8.0% | 10.7% | 81.3% |
| Edge | +6.5% | +7.0% | -13.6% |
Why Valencia
- Better recent form: 1 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
Best available price on the pick: 1.02, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -17.0% per unit staked (our 81.3% × 1.02 − 1).
Tavernes vs Valencia match preview
In the upcoming Copa del Rey match, Tavernes faces Valencia with a significant disparity in probabilities. Tavernes has an 8% chance of winning, while Valencia is heavily favored at 81%. The most likely scoreline predicted by our model is 0-1, occurring with a 13% probability. Expected goals for Tavernes stand at 0.95, while Valencia is projected at 1.21.
Both teams have shown mixed recent form, with Tavernes recording two draws, while Valencia has a streak of one win, two losses, and three draws. The likelihood of over 2.5 goals is estimated at 36%, and the probability of both teams scoring is at 44%. Overall, the confidence grade for this matchup is B, indicating a moderate level of certainty in the predictions.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Tavernes and Valencia expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.15
Tavernes and Valencia attack and defence ratings
Tavernes
Valencia
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Round of 128 fixtures
Before and after this match
Tavernes vs Valencia markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Valencia | 81.3% | 1.23 | -13.6% | 1.02 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 63.5% | 1.57 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 55.8% | 1.79 | — | — |
| Double chance | X2 (draw or away) | 92.0% | 1.09 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 59.3% | 1.69 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Tavernes | 8.0% |
| Draw | 10.7% | |
| Valencia | 81.3% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 36.5% |
| Under 2.5 | 63.5% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 44.2% |
| No | 55.8% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 18.7% |
| 12 (either side) | 89.3% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 92.0% | |
| Handicap -1 | Valencia win | 18.3% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22.4% | |
| Loss | 59.3% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 14.6% |
| 0-0 | 12.9% | |
| 0-1 | 12.7% |
Tavernes vs Valencia stats
Tavernes and Valencia recent form
| Tavernes |
DD |
| Valencia |
LWLDDL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 2 completed matches.
Tavernes vs Valencia head-to-head
No recent meetings on record
Tavernes vs Valencia odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 1.4%, draw 3.7%, away 94.9%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 65.00 | 26.00 | 1.00 |
| Bet365 | 67.00 | 26.00 | 1.00 |
| Betano | 55.00 | 17.00 | 1.02 |
| Betfair | 76.00 | 76.00 | 1.01 |
| Dafabet | 80.00 | 35.00 | 1.01 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
18 snapshots recorded, from .