Salamanca UDS
vs
Celta Vigo
Garuda Lions Prediction: Celta Vigo
0 – 1 Predicted score · 13% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.81 vs 0.73.
- RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — Celta Vigo is the favourite, not a value bet.
Salamanca UDS vs Celta Vigo overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Salamanca UDS vs Celta Vigo
| Probability | Salamanca UDS | Draw | Celta Vigo |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 13.5% | 24.4% | 62.1% |
| Market | 12.6% | 18.4% | 69.1% |
| Final | 12.8% | 19.9% | 67.3% |
| Edge | +0.2% | +1.5% | -1.7% |
Why Celta Vigo
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.81 vs 0.73.
- Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Best available price on the pick: 1.36, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -8.5% per unit staked (our 67.3% × 1.36 − 1).
Salamanca UDS vs Celta Vigo match preview
Salamanca UDS faces Celta Vigo in the Copa del Rey with a significant disparity in expected performance. Our model assigns Salamanca UDS a 13% chance of winning, while Celta Vigo stands at 67%. The most likely scoreline is 0-1, with expected goals of 0.73 for Salamanca UDS and 1.81 for Celta Vigo. The recent form indicates Salamanca UDS has one win and one loss, while Celta Vigo has drawn twice and won twice in their last six matches.
The probabilities suggest a competitive match, though Celta Vigo is favored to secure a victory. The likelihood of over 2.5 goals is estimated at 47%, and both teams to score is at 44%. In their last head-to-head encounter, Celta Vigo emerged victorious, further emphasizing their advantage heading into this fixture.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Salamanca UDS and Celta Vigo expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.54
Salamanca UDS and Celta Vigo attack and defence ratings
Salamanca UDS
Celta Vigo
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Round of 128 fixtures
Before and after this match
Salamanca UDS vs Celta Vigo markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Celta Vigo | 67.3% | 1.49 | -1.7% | 1.36 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 53.4% | 1.87 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 55.6% | 1.80 | — | — |
| Double chance | X2 (draw or away) | 87.2% | 1.15 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 37.9% | 2.64 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Salamanca UDS | 12.8% |
| Draw | 19.9% | |
| Celta Vigo | 67.3% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 46.6% |
| Under 2.5 | 53.4% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 44.4% |
| No | 55.6% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 32.7% |
| 12 (either side) | 80.1% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 87.2% | |
| Handicap -1 | Celta Vigo win | 37.1% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 25.0% | |
| Loss | 37.9% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 0-1 | 13.2% |
| 0-2 | 12.9% | |
| 1-1 | 11.5% |
Salamanca UDS vs Celta Vigo stats
Salamanca UDS and Celta Vigo recent form
| Salamanca UDS |
LW |
| Celta Vigo |
DLLDWW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 2 completed matches.
Salamanca UDS vs Celta Vigo head-to-head
Last 1 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-12-03 | Salamanca UDS | Celta Vigo | Copa del Rey | 0-7 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Salamanca UDS vs Celta Vigo odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 12.7%, draw 18.4%, away 68.8%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 7.19 | 5.10 | 1.36 |
| Bet365 | 7.50 | 5.00 | 1.36 |
| BetVictor | 8.00 | 5.00 | 1.30 |
| Betano | 7.30 | 4.90 | 1.33 |
| Betfair | 8.00 | 5.00 | 1.33 |
| Dafabet | 8.60 | 5.60 | 1.34 |
| Marathonbet | 7.20 | 5.10 | 1.35 |
| Pinnacle | 6.94 | 4.91 | 1.34 |
| SBO | 6.38 | 4.45 | 1.31 |
| William Hill | 6.50 | 4.60 | 1.36 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
27 snapshots recorded, from .