Alcazar
vs
Malaga
Garuda Lions Prediction: Alcazar
1 – 0 Predicted score · 11% model probability
Alcazar vs Malaga overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Alcazar vs Malaga
| Probability | Alcazar | Draw | Malaga |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 38.1% | 30.9% | 31.0% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Final | 38.1% | 30.9% | 31.0% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Why Alcazar
- Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 2 vs 0 for the opposition.
Alcazar vs Malaga match preview
In the upcoming Copa del Rey match, Alcazar faces Malaga with a 38% probability of winning, while both teams share a 31% chance of a draw or a Malaga victory. The most likely scoreline predicted by our model is 1-0 in favor of Alcazar, occurring with an 11% likelihood. The expected goals for Alcazar stand at 1.22, compared to Malaga's 1.08, indicating a closely contested match.
Alcazar enters the match with a strong recent form, having won their last two games, while Malaga struggles with three losses and two draws in their last six matches. The probability of over 2.5 goals is at 40%, and there is a 48% chance that both teams will score. The overall confidence grade for this matchup is B, suggesting a moderate level of certainty in the forecast.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Alcazar and Malaga expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.30
Alcazar and Malaga attack and defence ratings
Alcazar
Malaga
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Round of 128 fixtures
Before and after this match
Alcazar vs Malaga markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Alcazar | 38.1% | 2.63 | — | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 59.6% | 1.68 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 52.2% | 1.92 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 69.1% | 1.45 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 61.9% | 1.62 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Alcazar | 38.1% |
| Draw | 30.9% | |
| Malaga | 31.0% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 40.4% |
| Under 2.5 | 59.6% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 47.8% |
| No | 52.2% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 69.0% |
| 12 (either side) | 69.1% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 61.9% | |
| Handicap -1 | Alcazar win | 17.1% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21.0% | |
| Loss | 61.9% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 14.5% |
| 0-0 | 11.4% | |
| 1-0 | 10.9% |
Alcazar vs Malaga stats
Alcazar and Malaga recent form
| Alcazar | WW |
| Malaga |
DLLDDL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 2 completed matches.