Garuda Lions
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Copa del Rey · Full time ·Round of 128

Alcazar vs Malaga

0 – 3 Full time

34′A. Ruefli
43′A. RuefliB. Ferraris
46′R. RodriguezD. Larrubia
46′J. CajusteH. Abaida
46′C. DotorChupe
54′Chupe
56′J. BerrocalD. Lorenzo
61′A. Alberto
70′Gilson
71′Chupe
74′J. Fernandez
75′QuiniJ. Soriano
75′A. AlbertoJoselu
75′E. AvilaR. Moreno
79′A. Aviles
80′Chupe
81′GilsonM. Traore
82′J. FernandezC. Puga
88′D. Lorenzo

Estadio Municipal Manuel Delgado Meco, Alcazar de San Juan

Alcazar 12%
Draw 11%
Malaga 77%

Confidence: Medium  ·  blended with market odds

Alcazar vs Malaga overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Alcazar vs Malaga

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityAlcazarDrawMalaga
Model40.7%29.9%29.4%
Market2.0%5.1%92.8%
Final11.7%11.3%77.0%
Edge+9.7%+6.2%-15.9%

Confidence: Medium · Edge = Final minus Market

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Alcazar ↓ / Malaga → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 10% 9% 1 10% 14% 2 8% 8% 3 4+

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 90%
2+ goals 71%
3+ goals 43%
No goals 10%

Alcazar and Malaga expected goals

Alcazar 1.31
Malaga 1.10

Total expected goals: 2.41

Alcazar and Malaga attack and defence ratings

Alcazar

Attack 0.97 -3%
Defence 0.80 -20%

Malaga

Attack 0.70 -30%
Defence 1.04 +4%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Alcazar vs Malaga: result vs prediction

Alcazar 0 – 3 Malaga

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✓ Correct
Over/Under 2.5 pick✗ Incorrect
BTTS pick✗ Incorrect

Other Round of 128 fixtures

Copa del Rey

Before and after this match

Alcazar vs Malaga markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 Malaga 77.0% 1.30 -15.9% —
Over/Under 2.5 Under 2.5 56.6% 1.77 — —
Both teams to score Yes 50.0% 2.00 — —
Double chance 12 (either side) 88.7% 1.13 — —
Handicap -1 Loss 70.1% 1.43 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2Alcazar11.7%
Draw11.3%
Malaga77.0%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.543.4%
Under 2.556.6%
Both teams to scoreYes50.0%
No50.0%
Double chance1X (home or draw)23.0%
12 (either side)88.7%
X2 (draw or away)88.3%
Handicap -1Malaga win12.3%
Push (exactly one goal)17.6%
Loss70.1%
Correct score (top 3)1-114.2%
1-010.6%
0-010.2%

Alcazar vs Malaga stats

Alcazar and Malaga recent form

newest first
Alcazar WW
Malaga DLDLLD

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 2 completed matches.

Alcazar vs Malaga head-to-head

No recent meetings on record

Our head-to-head history covers these clubs' top-flight matches from 2014 onwards — these two simply haven't crossed paths in that window (newly promoted sides and cross-division pairings are the usual reason). The prediction doesn't rely on H2H: it is built from each team's current expected-goals ratings.

Alcazar vs Malaga odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 2.0%, draw 5.1%, away 92.8%.

Bookmaker1X2
1xBet 26.00 21.00 1.02
Bet365 51.00 21.00 1.01
BetVictor 36.00 11.00 1.03
Betano 37.00 11.25 1.03
Betfair 76.00 20.00 1.03
Dafabet 60.00 23.00 1.02
Marathonbet 43.00 14.50 1.02
William Hill 51.00 17.00 1.03

Odds movement

Only one odds snapshot recorded so far — movement needs at least two.