Lens vs Lyon overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Lens vs Lyon
| Probability | Lens | Draw | Lyon |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 49.4% | 21.2% | 29.4% |
| Market | 37.5% | 26.3% | 36.2% |
| Final | 40.5% | 25.0% | 34.5% |
| Edge | +11.9% | -5.1% | -6.8% |
Why Lens
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.25 vs 1.63.
- The market prices Lens below the model: +11.9 percentage points of edge.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Lens and Lyon expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.87
Lens and Lyon attack and defence ratings
Lens
Lyon
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Lens vs Lyon: result vs prediction
Lens 2 – 1 Lyon
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✓ Correct |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✓ Correct |
| BTTS pick | ✓ Correct |
Other Matchday 6 fixtures
Before and after this match
Lens vs Lyon markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Lens | 40.5% | 2.47 | +11.9% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 72.4% | 1.38 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 71.0% | 1.41 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 75.0% | 1.33 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 50.6% | 1.98 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Lens | 40.5% |
| Draw | 25.0% | |
| Lyon | 34.5% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 72.4% |
| Under 2.5 | 27.6% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 71.0% |
| No | 29.0% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 65.5% |
| 12 (either side) | 75.0% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 59.5% | |
| Handicap -1 | Lens win | 29.3% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20.1% | |
| Loss | 50.6% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 2-1 | 8.6% |
| 1-1 | 8.3% | |
| 2-2 | 7.0% |
Lens vs Lyon stats
Lens and Lyon recent form
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Lens and Lyon going into this match
Lens record
- They have won 1 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 1.8 goals per match.
- They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).
- 45% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Lyon record
- They have won 3 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 2.0 goals per match.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 5 matches.
Lens vs Lyon head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-17 | Lyon | Lens | Ligue 1 | 0-4 |
| 2026-03-05 | Lyon | Lens | Coupe de France | 2-2 |
| 2025-08-16 | Lens | Lyon | Ligue 1 | 0-1 |
| 2025-05-04 | Lyon | Lens | Ligue 1 | 1-2 |
| 2024-09-15 | Lens | Lyon | Ligue 1 | 0-0 |
| 2024-03-03 | Lyon | Lens | Ligue 1 | 0-3 |
| 2023-12-02 | Lens | Lyon | Ligue 1 | 3-2 |
| 2023-02-12 | Lyon | Lens | Ligue 1 | 2-1 |
| 2022-10-02 | Lens | Lyon | Ligue 1 | 1-0 |
| 2022-02-19 | Lens | Lyon | Ligue 1 | 1-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Lens vs Lyon odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 37.5%, draw 26.3%, away 36.2%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.66 | 3.72 | 2.69 |
| Bet365 | 2.55 | 3.60 | 2.60 |
| BetVictor | 2.45 | 3.75 | 2.60 |
| Betano | 2.55 | 3.60 | 2.65 |
| Betfair | 2.55 | 3.60 | 2.63 |
| Dafabet | 2.55 | 3.70 | 2.65 |
| Marathonbet | 2.49 | 3.74 | 2.76 |
| Pinnacle | 2.60 | 3.67 | 2.70 |
| SBO | 2.45 | 3.50 | 2.53 |
| William Hill | 2.50 | 3.40 | 2.50 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
44 snapshots recorded, from .