Garuda Lions
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Ligue 1 · Full time ·Matchday 3

Estac Troyes vs Strasbourg

2 – 6 Full time

9′A. Mille
37′Michel Diaz
40′J. Ortega
42′D. Sousa
45′Pape Diop
56′H. PicardJ. Le Douaron
56′M. IfnaouiK. Diawara
57′G. Reyna
62′S. NanasiS. Amo-Ameyaw
63′G. ReynaD. Essugo
70′R. RipartT. Nkada
70′I. DoukoureK. Coulibaly
71′J. OrtegaC. Harder
79′G. YassineL. Hogsberg
84′L. MaronnierI. Gomis
84′D. KarimY. Kone
85′S. Amo-Ameyaw
88′S. Amo-Ameyaw
90′C. Harder
90′J. Le Douaron

Stade de l'Aube, TroyesReferee: Guillaume Paradis

Estac Troyes 42%
Draw 25%
Strasbourg 33%

Confidence: Medium  ·  blended with market odds

Match stats

27 Shots 19
6 Shots on target 12
45 Possession % 55
11 Corners 0
6 Fouls 16
3 Offsides 1
6 Saves 4
301 Accurate passes 450

Estac Troyes vs Strasbourg overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Estac Troyes vs Strasbourg

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityEstac TroyesDrawStrasbourg
Model71.0%18.0%11.0%
Market32.4%27.4%40.2%
Final42.1%25.0%32.9%
Edge+38.6%-9.4%-29.2%

Confidence: Medium

Why Estac Troyes

  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.40 vs 0.78.
  • Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 3 for the opposition.
  • The market prices Estac Troyes below the model: +38.6 percentage points of edge.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Estac Troyes ↓ / Strasbourg → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 1 10% 9% 2 12% 10% 3 9% 7% 4+ 9% 7%

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 95%
2+ goals 81%
3+ goals 59%
No goals 5%

Estac Troyes and Strasbourg expected goals

Estac Troyes 2.40
Strasbourg 0.78

Total expected goals: 3.18

Estac Troyes and Strasbourg attack and defence ratings

Estac Troyes

Attack 1.23 +23%
Defence 0.67 -33%

Strasbourg

Attack 0.93 -7%
Defence 1.24 +24%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Estac Troyes vs Strasbourg: result vs prediction

Estac Troyes 2 – 6 Strasbourg

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✗ Incorrect
Over/Under 2.5 pick✓ Correct
BTTS pick✗ Incorrect

Other Matchday 3 fixtures

Ligue 1

Before and after this match

Estac Troyes vs Strasbourg markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 Estac Troyes 42.1% 2.38 +38.6% —
Over/Under 2.5 Over 2.5 59.0% 1.70 — —
Both teams to score No 51.2% 1.95 — —
Double chance 12 (either side) 75.0% 1.33 — —
Handicap -1 Estac Troyes win 47.7% 2.09 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2Estac Troyes42.1%
Draw25.0%
Strasbourg32.9%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.559.0%
Under 2.541.0%
Both teams to scoreYes48.8%
No51.2%
Double chance1X (home or draw)67.1%
12 (either side)75.0%
X2 (draw or away)57.9%
Handicap -1Estac Troyes win47.7%
Push (exactly one goal)23.3%
Loss29.0%
Correct score (top 3)2-012.2%
1-010.5%
2-19.5%

Estac Troyes vs Strasbourg stats

Estac Troyes and Strasbourg recent form

newest first
Estac Troyes WDLWWW
Strasbourg WLWWDL

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

Estac Troyes vs Strasbourg head-to-head

Last 8 meetings

3Estac Troyes wins 3Draws 2Strasbourg wins
DateHomeAwayCompetitionScore
2023-05-21Estac TroyesStrasbourgLigue 11-1
2023-01-02StrasbourgEstac TroyesLigue 12-3
2022-04-17Estac TroyesStrasbourgLigue 11-1
2021-08-22StrasbourgEstac TroyesLigue 11-1
2018-02-11StrasbourgEstac TroyesLigue 12-1
2017-11-04Estac TroyesStrasbourgLigue 13-0
2017-02-07Estac TroyesStrasbourgLigue 24-0
2016-09-12StrasbourgEstac TroyesLigue 22-0

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

Estac Troyes vs Strasbourg odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 31.1%, draw 27.8%, away 41.1%.

Bookmaker1X2
10Bet 3.10 3.50 2.18
1xBet 3.11 3.58 2.41
Bet365 2.90 3.50 2.40
BetVictor 2.88 3.50 2.38
Betano 3.15 3.40 2.30
Betfair 3.10 3.40 2.30
Dafabet 3.05 3.40 2.38
Marathonbet 3.02 3.52 2.40
Pinnacle 3.17 3.52 2.30
SBO 2.75 3.05 2.28
Superbet 3.05 3.40 2.40
Unibet 3.00 3.30 2.28
William Hill 2.90 3.25 2.30
winamax_de 3.00 3.40 2.25

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 2.96 ▲ +0.06
X 3.51 ▲ +0.16
2 2.39 ▲ +0.19

15 snapshots recorded, from .