Marseille
vs
Paris FC
2 – 3 Full time
| 1′ | L. Sinayoko | ||
| 8′ | A. Gouiri | ||
| 19′ | L. Sinayoko | ||
| 53′ | A. Gouiri | ||
| 64′ | P. PagisR. Matondo | ||
| 65′ | Rudy Matondo | ||
| 72′ | I. PaixaoT. Mmadi | ||
| 73′ | N. AguerdD. Cornelius | ||
| 73′ | A. GomesK. Abdallah | ||
| 77′ | I. KebbalP. Zabi | ||
| 77′ | L. KoleoshoM. Simon | ||
| 86′ | L. Sinayoko | ||
| 87′ | Lassine Sinayoko | ||
| 90′ | EmersonU. Garcia | ||
| 90′ | H. AbdelliF. Moumbagna | ||
| 90′ | M. LopezM. Mbow | ||
| 90′ | L. SinayokoO. Sissoko |
Match stats
| 14 | Shots | 18 |
|---|---|---|
| 5 | Shots on target | 7 |
| 60 | Possession % | 40 |
| 5 | Corners | 4 |
| 10 | Fouls | 12 |
| 2 | Offsides | 1 |
| 4 | Saves | 3 |
| 597 | Accurate passes | 348 |
Marseille vs Paris FC overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Marseille vs Paris FC
| Probability | Marseille | Draw | Paris FC |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 42.9% | 22.7% | 34.5% |
| Market | 51.1% | 25.2% | 23.7% |
| Final | 49.1% | 24.6% | 26.4% |
| Edge | -8.2% | -2.6% | +10.8% |
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Marseille and Paris FC expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.59
Marseille and Paris FC attack and defence ratings
Marseille
Paris FC
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Marseille vs Paris FC: result vs prediction
Marseille 2 – 3 Paris FC
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✓ Correct |
| BTTS pick | ✓ Correct |
Other Matchday 3 fixtures
Before and after this match
Marseille vs Paris FC markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Marseille | 49.1% | 2.04 | -8.2% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 67.8% | 1.48 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 68.2% | 1.47 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 75.4% | 1.33 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 57.2% | 1.75 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Marseille | 49.1% |
| Draw | 24.6% | |
| Paris FC | 26.4% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 67.8% |
| Under 2.5 | 32.2% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 68.2% |
| No | 31.8% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 73.6% |
| 12 (either side) | 75.4% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 50.9% | |
| Handicap -1 | Marseille win | 23.2% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 19.5% | |
| Loss | 57.2% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 9.5% |
| 2-1 | 8.5% | |
| 1-2 | 7.6% |
Marseille vs Paris FC stats
Marseille vs Paris FC head-to-head
Last 2 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-31 | Paris FC | Marseille | Ligue 1 | 2-2 |
| 2025-08-23 | Marseille | Paris FC | Ligue 1 | 5-2 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Marseille vs Paris FC odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 52.8%, draw 24.5%, away 22.7%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10Bet | 1.70 | 3.90 | 4.40 |
| 1xBet | 1.91 | 3.90 | 4.26 |
| Bet365 | 1.90 | 3.80 | 3.60 |
| BetVictor | 1.85 | 3.70 | 4.00 |
| Betano | 1.78 | 4.00 | 4.25 |
| Betfair | 1.80 | 4.00 | 4.20 |
| Dafabet | 1.81 | 3.95 | 4.30 |
| Marathonbet | 1.88 | 3.84 | 4.20 |
| Pinnacle | 1.89 | 3.86 | 4.14 |
| SBO | 1.76 | 3.44 | 3.74 |
| Superbet | 1.78 | 4.00 | 4.30 |
| Unibet | 1.74 | 3.85 | 4.20 |
| William Hill | 1.85 | 3.50 | 3.80 |
| unibet_fr | 1.74 | 4.10 | 4.10 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
16 snapshots recorded, from .