Garuda Lions
Today
Ligue 1 · Full time ·Matchday 3

Toulouse vs Lille

0 – 1 Full time

20′Santiago Hidalgo
46′C. VerdonkR. Perraud
46′O. SahraouiD. Bakwa
57′S. HidalgoJ. Vignolo
57′O. GiroudA. Ueda
58′E. MbappeN. Mukau
65′J. Russell-RoweC. Tengstedt
66′R. MessaliI. Diallo
71′G. RestesM. Niflore
71′N. BentalebB. Onal
72′A. VossahN. Schmidt
73′A. Ueda

Stadium Municipal, ToulouseReferee: Mathieu Vernice

Toulouse 26%
Draw 28%
Lille 46%

Confidence: High  ·  blended with market odds

Match stats

24 Shots 10
10 Shots on target 6
54 Possession % 46
6 Corners 2
16 Fouls 9
3 Offsides 0
5 Saves 9
451 Accurate passes 395

Toulouse vs Lille overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Toulouse vs Lille

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityToulouseDrawLille
Model31.9%27.4%40.8%
Market24.1%27.7%48.2%
Final26.0%27.6%46.4%
Edge+7.7%-0.3%-7.4%

Confidence: High

Why Lille

  • Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Toulouse ↓ / Lille → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 8% 11% 7% 1 9% 13% 9% 2 7% 3 4+

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 92%
2+ goals 72%
3+ goals 46%
No goals 8%

Toulouse and Lille expected goals

Toulouse 1.23
Lille 1.36

Total expected goals: 2.58

Toulouse and Lille attack and defence ratings

Toulouse

Attack 0.97 -3%
Defence 1.18 +18%

Lille

Attack 0.93 -7%
Defence 0.80 -20%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Toulouse vs Lille: result vs prediction

Toulouse 0 – 1 Lille

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✓ Correct
Over/Under 2.5 pick✓ Correct
BTTS pick✗ Incorrect

Other Matchday 3 fixtures

Ligue 1

Before and after this match

Toulouse vs Lille markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 Lille 46.4% 2.16 -7.4% —
Over/Under 2.5 Under 2.5 53.8% 1.86 — —
Both teams to score Yes 51.4% 1.94 — —
Double chance X2 (draw or away) 74.0% 1.35 — —
Handicap -1 Loss 59.2% 1.69 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2Toulouse26.0%
Draw27.6%
Lille46.4%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.546.2%
Under 2.553.8%
Both teams to scoreYes51.4%
No48.6%
Double chance1X (home or draw)53.6%
12 (either side)72.4%
X2 (draw or away)74.0%
Handicap -1Lille win19.0%
Push (exactly one goal)21.8%
Loss59.2%
Correct score (top 3)1-113.0%
0-110.6%
1-09.0%

Toulouse vs Lille stats

Toulouse and Lille recent form

newest first
Toulouse DLDWWD
Lille DWLWDW

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

Toulouse vs Lille head-to-head

Last 10 meetings

2Toulouse wins 1Draws 7Lille wins
DateHomeAwayCompetitionScore
2026-04-12ToulouseLilleLigue 10-4
2025-09-14LilleToulouseLigue 12-1
2025-04-12ToulouseLilleLigue 11-2
2024-10-05LilleToulouseLigue 12-1
2024-02-25ToulouseLilleLigue 13-1
2023-11-12LilleToulouseLigue 11-1
2023-03-18ToulouseLilleLigue 10-2
2022-09-17LilleToulouseLigue 12-1
2020-02-22LilleToulouseLigue 13-0
2019-10-19ToulouseLilleLigue 12-1

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

Toulouse vs Lille odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 24.2%, draw 27.8%, away 48.0%.

Bookmaker1X2
10Bet 3.90 3.50 1.90
1xBet 4.16 3.60 2.01
Bet365 3.90 3.50 1.95
BetVictor 4.10 3.40 1.93
Betano 3.95 3.50 1.95
Betfair 4.00 3.40 1.95
Dafabet 3.40 3.35 2.24
Marathonbet 4.10 3.55 1.98
Pinnacle 4.13 3.56 1.98
SBO 2.97 3.02 2.16
Superbet 3.45 3.30 2.22
Unibet 3.75 3.40 1.94
William Hill 3.80 3.30 1.95
winamax_de 3.30 3.40 2.10

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 3.90 ▲ +0.75
X 3.40 ▲ +0.05
2 1.95 ▼ -0.10

10 snapshots recorded, from .