Brest vs Toulouse overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Brest vs Toulouse
| Probability | Brest | Draw | Toulouse |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 40.8% | 24.5% | 34.6% |
| Market | 35.9% | 28.1% | 36.0% |
| Final | 37.1% | 27.2% | 35.7% |
| Edge | +4.9% | -3.5% | -1.4% |
Why Brest
- The market prices Brest below the model: +4.9 percentage points of edge.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Brest and Toulouse expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.13
Brest and Toulouse attack and defence ratings
Brest
Toulouse
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Brest vs Toulouse: result vs prediction
Brest 2 – 2 Toulouse
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✓ Correct |
| BTTS pick | ✓ Correct |
Other Matchday 2 fixtures
Before and after this match
Brest vs Toulouse markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Brest | 37.1% | 2.69 | +4.9% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 58.8% | 1.70 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 61.4% | 1.63 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 72.8% | 1.37 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 59.2% | 1.69 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Brest | 37.1% |
| Draw | 27.2% | |
| Toulouse | 35.7% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 58.8% |
| Under 2.5 | 41.2% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 61.4% |
| No | 38.6% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 64.3% |
| 12 (either side) | 72.8% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 62.9% | |
| Handicap -1 | Brest win | 20.6% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20.2% | |
| Loss | 59.2% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 11.3% |
| 2-1 | 8.8% | |
| 1-2 | 8.0% |
Brest vs Toulouse stats
Brest vs Toulouse head-to-head
Last 6 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-25 | Brest | Toulouse | Ligue 1 | 0-2 |
| 2025-08-24 | Toulouse | Brest | Ligue 1 | 2-0 |
| 2025-03-30 | Toulouse | Brest | Ligue 1 | 2-4 |
| 2024-09-22 | Brest | Toulouse | Ligue 1 | 2-0 |
| 2024-05-19 | Toulouse | Brest | Ligue 1 | 0-3 |
| 2023-10-08 | Brest | Toulouse | Ligue 1 | 1-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Brest vs Toulouse odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 35.9%, draw 28.1%, away 36.0%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10Bet | 2.60 | 3.30 | 2.60 |
| 1xBet | 2.71 | 3.50 | 2.76 |
| Bet365 | 2.62 | 3.40 | 2.62 |
| BetVictor | 2.55 | 3.25 | 2.55 |
| Betano | 2.67 | 3.35 | 2.65 |
| Betfair | 2.70 | 3.40 | 2.63 |
| Dafabet | 2.70 | 3.40 | 2.65 |
| Marathonbet | 2.67 | 3.45 | 2.72 |
| Pinnacle | 2.66 | 3.46 | 2.72 |
| SBO | 2.52 | 3.05 | 2.47 |
| Superbet | 2.70 | 3.40 | 2.67 |
| Unibet | 2.55 | 3.20 | 2.70 |
| William Hill | 2.62 | 3.25 | 2.60 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
11 snapshots recorded, from .