Toulouse vs Lyon overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Toulouse vs Lyon
| Probability | Toulouse | Draw | Lyon |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 39.6% | 25.6% | 34.8% |
| Market | 39.7% | 28.0% | 32.3% |
| Final | 39.7% | 27.4% | 32.9% |
| Edge | -0.0% | -2.4% | +2.5% |
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Toulouse and Lyon expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.92
Toulouse and Lyon attack and defence ratings
Toulouse
Lyon
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Toulouse vs Lyon: result vs prediction
Toulouse 0 – 2 Lyon
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| BTTS pick | ✗ Incorrect |
Other Matchday 1 fixtures
Before and after this match
Toulouse vs Lyon markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Toulouse | 39.7% | 2.52 | -0.0% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 54.2% | 1.85 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 57.8% | 1.73 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 72.6% | 1.38 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 60.2% | 1.66 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Toulouse | 39.7% |
| Draw | 27.4% | |
| Lyon | 32.9% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 54.2% |
| Under 2.5 | 45.8% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 57.8% |
| No | 42.2% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 67.1% |
| 12 (either side) | 72.6% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 60.3% | |
| Handicap -1 | Toulouse win | 19.3% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20.5% | |
| Loss | 60.2% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 12.0% |
| 2-1 | 8.7% | |
| 1-0 | 8.3% |
Toulouse vs Lyon stats
Toulouse vs Lyon head-to-head
Last 6 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-10 | Toulouse | Lyon | Ligue 1 | 2-1 |
| 2025-10-05 | Lyon | Toulouse | Ligue 1 | 1-2 |
| 2025-01-18 | Lyon | Toulouse | Ligue 1 | 0-0 |
| 2024-09-29 | Toulouse | Lyon | Ligue 1 | 1-2 |
| 2024-03-15 | Toulouse | Lyon | Ligue 1 | 2-3 |
| 2023-12-10 | Lyon | Toulouse | Ligue 1 | 3-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Toulouse vs Lyon odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 39.6%, draw 27.9%, away 32.5%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10Bet | 2.84 | 3.55 | 2.30 |
| 1xBet | 2.43 | 3.66 | 3.02 |
| 888Sport | 2.30 | 3.30 | 2.80 |
| Bet365 | 2.40 | 3.40 | 2.90 |
| BetVictor | 2.30 | 3.40 | 3.00 |
| Betano | 2.40 | 3.40 | 2.95 |
| Betfair | 2.40 | 3.40 | 2.90 |
| Dafabet | 2.42 | 3.45 | 2.95 |
| Marathonbet | 2.39 | 3.60 | 2.98 |
| Pinnacle | 2.41 | 3.50 | 3.05 |
| SBO | 2.34 | 3.22 | 2.83 |
| Superbet | 2.45 | 3.40 | 2.95 |
| Unibet | 2.40 | 3.35 | 2.80 |
| William Hill | 2.30 | 3.40 | 2.80 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
6 snapshots recorded, from .