Lyon
vs
Fenerbahçe
1 – 2 Full time
Lyon vs Fenerbahçe overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Lyon vs Fenerbahçe
| Probability | Lyon | Draw | Fenerbahçe |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 32.9% | 27.3% | 39.8% |
| Market | 48.9% | 26.2% | 24.8% |
| Final | 44.9% | 26.5% | 28.6% |
| Edge | -16.0% | +1.0% | +15.0% |
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Lyon and Fenerbahçe expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.85
Lyon and Fenerbahçe attack and defence ratings
Lyon
Fenerbahçe
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Lyon vs Fenerbahçe: result vs prediction
Lyon 1 – 2 Fenerbahçe
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✓ Correct |
| BTTS pick | ✓ Correct |
Other Play-offs fixtures
Before and after this match
Lyon vs Fenerbahçe markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Lyon | 44.9% | 2.23 | -16.0% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 54.3% | 1.84 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 58.8% | 1.70 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 73.5% | 1.36 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 67.1% | 1.49 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Lyon | 44.9% |
| Draw | 26.5% | |
| Fenerbahçe | 28.6% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 54.3% |
| Under 2.5 | 45.7% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 58.8% |
| No | 41.2% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 71.4% |
| 12 (either side) | 73.5% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 55.1% | |
| Handicap -1 | Lyon win | 15.2% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 17.7% | |
| Loss | 67.1% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 12.9% |
| 1-2 | 8.8% | |
| 2-1 | 7.9% |
Lyon vs Fenerbahçe stats
Lyon and Fenerbahçe recent form
| Lyon |
WDWLLL |
| Fenerbahçe |
WDLWWD |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Lyon and Fenerbahçe going into this match
Fenerbahçe record
- They have won 4 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 6 matches.
- 69% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Lyon vs Fenerbahçe head-to-head
Last 2 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-18 | Fenerbahçe | Lyon | UEFA Champions League | 1-1 |
| 2025-01-23 | Fenerbahçe | Lyon | UEFA Europa League | 0-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Lyon vs Fenerbahçe odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 48.9%, draw 26.2%, away 24.8%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10Bet | 1.90 | 3.55 | 3.80 |
| 1xBet | 1.96 | 3.80 | 3.94 |
| 888Sport | 1.91 | 3.40 | 3.60 |
| Bet365 | 1.85 | 3.50 | 3.70 |
| BetVictor | 1.93 | 3.70 | 3.75 |
| Betano | 1.98 | 3.75 | 3.95 |
| Betfair | 1.91 | 3.50 | 3.75 |
| Dafabet | 1.98 | 3.60 | 3.85 |
| Marathonbet | 1.95 | 3.78 | 3.92 |
| Pinnacle | 1.95 | 3.72 | 3.85 |
| SBO | 1.93 | 3.34 | 3.44 |
| Superbet | 1.95 | 3.60 | 3.80 |
| Unibet | 1.88 | 3.60 | 3.85 |
| William Hill | 1.91 | 3.40 | 3.60 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
12 snapshots recorded, from .