Lyon vs Le Havre overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Lyon vs Le Havre
| Probability | Lyon | Draw | Le Havre |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 55.4% | 23.2% | 21.4% |
| Market | 65.1% | 20.8% | 14.1% |
| Final | 62.6% | 21.4% | 15.9% |
| Edge | -9.7% | +2.4% | +7.3% |
Why Lyon
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.95 vs 1.07.
- Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Lyon and Le Havre expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.01
Lyon and Le Havre attack and defence ratings
Lyon
Le Havre
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Lyon vs Le Havre: result vs prediction
Lyon 1 – 1 Le Havre
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| BTTS pick | ✓ Correct |
Other Matchday 2 fixtures
Before and after this match
Lyon vs Le Havre markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Lyon | 62.6% | 1.60 | -9.7% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 55.8% | 1.79 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 55.6% | 1.80 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 84.1% | 1.19 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 44.7% | 2.24 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Lyon | 62.6% |
| Draw | 21.4% | |
| Le Havre | 15.9% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 55.8% |
| Under 2.5 | 44.2% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 55.6% |
| No | 44.4% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 84.1% |
| 12 (either side) | 78.6% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 37.4% | |
| Handicap -1 | Lyon win | 31.9% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 23.5% | |
| Loss | 44.7% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 10.9% |
| 2-1 | 9.9% | |
| 1-0 | 9.7% |
Lyon vs Le Havre stats
Lyon vs Le Havre head-to-head
Last 6 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-15 | Le Havre | Lyon | Ligue 1 | 0-0 |
| 2025-12-14 | Lyon | Le Havre | Ligue 1 | 1-0 |
| 2025-03-16 | Lyon | Le Havre | Ligue 1 | 4-2 |
| 2024-10-20 | Le Havre | Lyon | Ligue 1 | 0-4 |
| 2024-01-14 | Le Havre | Lyon | Ligue 1 | 3-1 |
| 2023-09-17 | Lyon | Le Havre | Ligue 1 | 0-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Lyon vs Le Havre odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 65.1%, draw 20.8%, away 14.1%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10Bet | 1.44 | 4.20 | 7.30 |
| 1xBet | 1.54 | 4.62 | 6.76 |
| Bet365 | 1.44 | 4.50 | 7.00 |
| BetVictor | 1.44 | 4.10 | 6.50 |
| Betano | 1.50 | 4.35 | 6.70 |
| Betfair | 1.44 | 4.60 | 7.00 |
| Dafabet | 1.49 | 4.60 | 6.60 |
| Marathonbet | 1.51 | 4.55 | 6.65 |
| Pinnacle | 1.51 | 4.51 | 6.53 |
| SBO | 1.40 | 4.01 | 6.09 |
| Superbet | 1.49 | 4.60 | 6.40 |
| Unibet | 1.43 | 4.40 | 7.00 |
| William Hill | 1.44 | 4.20 | 6.00 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
11 snapshots recorded, from .