Lille
vs
Paris Saint Germain
2 – 2 Full time
Lille vs Paris Saint Germain overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Lille vs Paris Saint Germain
| Probability | Lille | Draw | Paris Saint Germain |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 42.0% | 27.8% | 30.2% |
| Market | 20.8% | 24.3% | 54.8% |
| Final | 26.1% | 25.2% | 48.7% |
| Edge | +21.2% | +3.5% | -24.7% |
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Lille and Paris Saint Germain expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.50
Lille and Paris Saint Germain attack and defence ratings
Lille
Paris Saint Germain
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Lille vs Paris Saint Germain: result vs prediction
Lille 2 – 2 Paris Saint Germain
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| BTTS pick | ✗ Incorrect |
Other Matchday 2 fixtures
Before and after this match
Lille vs Paris Saint Germain markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Paris Saint Germain | 48.7% | 2.05 | -24.7% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 56.1% | 1.78 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 50.6% | 1.98 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 74.8% | 1.34 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 69.8% | 1.43 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Lille | 26.1% |
| Draw | 25.2% | |
| Paris Saint Germain | 48.7% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 43.9% |
| Under 2.5 | 56.1% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 49.4% |
| No | 50.6% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 51.3% |
| 12 (either side) | 74.8% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 73.9% | |
| Handicap -1 | Paris Saint Germain win | 11.9% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 18.2% | |
| Loss | 69.8% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 13.2% |
| 1-0 | 11.4% | |
| 0-1 | 9.3% |
Lille vs Paris Saint Germain stats
Lille and Paris Saint Germain recent form
| Lille |
WLWDWD |
| Paris Saint Germain |
DDLWWD |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Lille vs Paris Saint Germain head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-16 | Paris Saint Germain | Lille | Ligue 1 | 3-0 |
| 2025-10-05 | Lille | Paris Saint Germain | Ligue 1 | 1-1 |
| 2025-03-01 | Paris Saint Germain | Lille | Ligue 1 | 4-1 |
| 2024-09-01 | Lille | Paris Saint Germain | Ligue 1 | 1-3 |
| 2024-02-10 | Paris Saint Germain | Lille | Ligue 1 | 3-1 |
| 2023-12-17 | Lille | Paris Saint Germain | Ligue 1 | 1-1 |
| 2023-02-19 | Paris Saint Germain | Lille | Ligue 1 | 4-3 |
| 2022-08-21 | Lille | Paris Saint Germain | Ligue 1 | 1-7 |
| 2022-02-06 | Lille | Paris Saint Germain | Ligue 1 | 1-5 |
| 2021-10-29 | Paris Saint Germain | Lille | Ligue 1 | 2-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Lille vs Paris Saint Germain odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 20.8%, draw 24.3%, away 54.8%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10Bet | 4.55 | 3.85 | 1.69 |
| 1xBet | 4.68 | 4.12 | 1.79 |
| Bet365 | 4.75 | 3.80 | 1.73 |
| BetVictor | 4.40 | 3.75 | 1.67 |
| Betano | 4.55 | 4.00 | 1.72 |
| Betfair | 4.75 | 3.90 | 1.73 |
| Dafabet | 4.60 | 3.95 | 1.76 |
| Marathonbet | 4.60 | 4.05 | 1.76 |
| Pinnacle | 4.61 | 4.02 | 1.75 |
| SBO | 3.95 | 3.43 | 1.72 |
| Superbet | 4.55 | 3.90 | 1.76 |
| Unibet | 4.40 | 3.75 | 1.73 |
| William Hill | 4.33 | 3.75 | 1.75 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
11 snapshots recorded, from .