Monaco
vs
Marseille
2 – 0 Full time
| 13′ | P. Brunner | ||
| 42′ | Denis Zakaria | ||
| 43′ | Lamine Camara | ||
| 46′ | H. AbdelliT. Nnadi | ||
| 46′ | Q. TimberK. Abdallah | ||
| 53′ | P. Brunner | ||
| 58′ | G. KondogbiaN. Aguerd | ||
| 73′ | MarseilleN. Maupay | ||
| 81′ | M. CoulibalyA. Soubeir | ||
| 81′ | A. GolovinM. Abline | ||
| 81′ | P. BrunnerM. Biereth | ||
| 85′ | S. IdumboM. Detourbet | ||
| 85′ | A. GomesF. Moumbagna | ||
| 88′ | Nazinho | ||
| 90′ | Lukáš Hrádecký |
Match stats
| 11 | Shots | 13 |
|---|---|---|
| 5 | Shots on target | 2 |
| 36 | Possession % | 64 |
| 5 | Corners | 7 |
| 9 | Fouls | 10 |
| 3 | Offsides | 1 |
| 2 | Saves | 3 |
| 310 | Accurate passes | 591 |
Monaco vs Marseille overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Monaco vs Marseille
| Probability | Monaco | Draw | Marseille |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 39.4% | 21.9% | 38.7% |
| Market | 37.8% | 25.5% | 36.7% |
| Final | 38.2% | 24.6% | 37.2% |
| Edge | +1.6% | -3.7% | +2.0% |
Why Monaco
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.19 vs 1.79.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 3 for the opposition.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Monaco and Marseille expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.99
Monaco and Marseille attack and defence ratings
Monaco
Marseille
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Monaco vs Marseille: result vs prediction
Monaco 2 – 0 Marseille
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✓ Correct |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| BTTS pick | ✗ Incorrect |
Other Matchday 2 fixtures
Before and after this match
Monaco vs Marseille markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Monaco | 38.2% | 2.62 | +1.6% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 72.2% | 1.38 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 71.9% | 1.39 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 75.4% | 1.33 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 54.9% | 1.82 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Monaco | 38.2% |
| Draw | 24.6% | |
| Marseille | 37.2% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 72.2% |
| Under 2.5 | 27.8% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 71.9% |
| No | 28.1% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 62.8% |
| 12 (either side) | 75.4% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 61.8% | |
| Handicap -1 | Monaco win | 26.0% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 19.1% | |
| Loss | 54.9% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 8.5% |
| 2-1 | 7.8% | |
| 1-2 | 7.7% |
Monaco vs Marseille stats
Monaco vs Marseille head-to-head
Last 6 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-05 | Monaco | Marseille | Ligue 1 | 2-1 |
| 2025-12-14 | Marseille | Monaco | Ligue 1 | 1-0 |
| 2025-04-12 | Monaco | Marseille | Ligue 1 | 3-0 |
| 2024-12-01 | Marseille | Monaco | Ligue 1 | 2-1 |
| 2024-01-27 | Marseille | Monaco | Ligue 1 | 2-2 |
| 2023-09-30 | Monaco | Marseille | Ligue 1 | 3-2 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Monaco vs Marseille odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 37.8%, draw 25.5%, away 36.7%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10Bet | 2.50 | 3.70 | 2.50 |
| 1xBet | 2.58 | 3.84 | 2.72 |
| Bet365 | 2.38 | 3.70 | 2.55 |
| BetVictor | 2.38 | 3.60 | 2.55 |
| Betano | 2.50 | 3.70 | 2.62 |
| Betfair | 2.50 | 3.90 | 2.60 |
| Dafabet | 2.50 | 3.75 | 2.65 |
| Marathonbet | 2.54 | 3.78 | 2.68 |
| Pinnacle | 2.51 | 3.74 | 2.72 |
| SBO | 2.34 | 3.34 | 2.47 |
| Unibet | 2.55 | 3.65 | 2.48 |
| William Hill | 2.50 | 3.50 | 2.50 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
10 snapshots recorded, from .